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Yankees vs. Cardinals Prediction and Odds for Friday, August 5 (Yankees' Lineup Ready to Explode)

By Joe Summers

Aaron Judge and the Yankees should feast on Dakota Hudson, who is one of MLB's worst starters
Aaron Judge and the Yankees should feast on Dakota Hudson, who is one of MLB's worst starters / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
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The St. Louis Cardinals are riding high after a four-game win streak propelled them to a tie for first in the NL Central. Their pitching staff allowed just five runs total over the four wins, though Dakota Hudson faces a brutal matchup against the New York Yankees vaunted lineup today.

Unfortunately for St. Louis, Hudson is a pitcher I'm looking to fade as often as possible moving forward. His underlying metrics are horrible, with a 5.48 expected ERA, as the Cardinals lost each of his last four outings.

Nestor Cortes takes the mound for New York after compiling a 3-0 record and 2.46 ERA in July. The Yankees are 11-3 in his last 14 starts and he's limited his opponent to two runs or fewer in four of five outings.

Can New York get back on track behind Cortes or will Hudson make me eat my words?

Let's analyze this Yankees vs Cardinals matchup by first taking a gander at the odds, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:

Yankees vs Cardinals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Yankees -1.5 (+110)
  • Cardinals +1.5 (-130)

Moneyline:

  • Yankees: -148
  • Cardinals: +138

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Yankees vs Cardinals Prediction and Pick

The Yankees may be my favorite value on the board today, as their lineup should destroy Dakota Hudson.

Hudson is, in fact, terrible. Yet thanks to some kind of four-leaf clover he must keep in his pocket, he's been extremely lucky. His 4.10 ERA, already a poor mark, pales in comparison to his 5.48 expected ERA, and his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile is an unmitigated disaster:

Hudson has a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over 5.11 in three of his last four starts. To give some context, the second-worst FIP among all qualified pitchers is German Marquez's 4.70. Thus, Hudson is consistently performing like one of the very worst pitchers in all of MLB.

You may not have heard, but the Yankees kind of mash. Their offense should feast. Even if it doesn't, Nestor Cortes is more than capable of limiting St. Louis. He's got a 2.83 expected ERA and allowed just three runs total over his last three starts.

Plus, he's very fun. Wouldn't you rather bet on a fun guy than a horrible pitcher? Me too.

Back the Yankees on the run line at plus money as Hudson's implosion continues.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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