Yankees vs. Guardians Prediction and Odds for ALDS Game 3 (Yankees In Trouble With Judge's Struggles)
By Josh Yourish
There may have been two days off in between, but through two games, the ALDS has not disappointed. But Aaron Judge has. The Cleveland Guardians did their job and were able to steal Game 2 from the New York Yankees in the Bronx yesterday, and now have home field for a best two out of three.
Cleveland hasn’t been a high-powered offense in the postseason, but they seem to have mastered run prevention and it’s carrying them through October. Triston McKenzie (11-11, 2.96 ERA) will try to keep the Yankees and a slumping Judge down in Cleveland and New York will turn to Luis Severino (7-3, 3.18 ERA).
Yankees vs. Guardians Odds Run Line and Total
Yankees vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
The last time we saw Luis Severino was on October 3, when he pitched seven no-hit innings against the Texas Rangers. Obviously that was his best start in his three back from injury in September and October, but a 12-day layoff is a long time for a starting pitcher and we’ve seen some great pitchers struggle in the postseason after some time off. For example, Justin Verlander gave up six earned runs over four innings.
I’m not sure if Severino will have that same type of struggle, but it is something to monitor. For Cleveland, Triston McKenzie is rolling right now. He went six scoreless innings in the Wild Card round against Tampa Bay and only allowed two hits while striking out eight.
The Cleveland Guardians are still 10th in postseason OPS and eighth in runs scored, still behind the Toronto Blue Jays who were eliminated in two games. Their offense just doesn’t have much firepower, but they get timely hits and string together just enough to keep winning games.
The Yankees offense is much more concerning. While they’ve only played two games in the postseason, it’s clear that Aaron Judge is pressing and potentially at the start of a bad slump. He went 0-5 yesterday and struck out five times. If Judge isn’t going, this Yankee lineup suddenly looks much less fierce. I think I like the Guardians today, but instead I’ll back the Guardians main team philosophy, run prevention.
Pick: Under 6.5 (+100)
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change