Youngstown State vs. Fresno State Prediction and Odds (Slow Pace Means Under)

After knocking off Morgan State, the 19-14 Youngstown State Penguins take on the 20-13 Fresno State Bulldogs in The Basketball Classic tonight at 10:00 PM EST.

That win snapped a three-game losing streak for the Penguins, but they've failed to cover the spread in five straight while Fresno State has won two of three but have failed to cover in all three.

These teams haven't played yet this year, but the Bulldogs are heavy favorites. Can they earn a convincing victory or will the Penguins keep it close?

Let's check out the odds over at WynnBET to find some value in this Youngstown State vs Fresno State matchup:

Youngstown State vs Fresno State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Youngstown State +13 (-110)
• Fresno State -13 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Youngstown State: +700
• Fresno State: -1100

Total:

• 132.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Youngstown State vs Fresno State Prediction and Pick

Fresno State features an excellent defense and poor offense while Youngstown State has a bad offense and horrible defense. The Bulldogs play at one of the slowest paces in the country, hoping they can wear down their opponent.

But that slow pace makes large spreads difficult to cover even against inferior teams. As a result, Fresno State is just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last six as a favorite. But Youngstown State is so bad it may not matter. They're a horrendous rebounding team and don't force turnovers, so the Bulldogs will be able to control the pace and slowly go through their offensive sets to try and find open looks.

Frankly, I think this total is way too high. The over has hit in five of the last six Fresno State games, which I think is pushing this total up, but they were against teams that presented much more of a challenge than the Penguins. Prior to tournament play, the under had hit in seven straight Fresno State games and was 12-3 in their last 15 as a favorite.

Youngstown State is a horrible defense, sure, but that will allow the Bulldogs to build an early lead and coast the rest of the game. A live under could be worth a look as well as I think the pace will slow down over the course of the game. Give me the under in a rare spot that we get a total in the 130s for Fresno State.

Pick: Under 132.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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