Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Rangers Set for Mid-Season Surge?)
By Reed Wallach
The weekend of baseball begins on Friday night with a ton of intriguing series starting across the sport.
A storyline emerging in Major League Baseball is the race in the American League West. Once a dominant division, neither team has established itself this season, but the Rangers offense is starting to wake up in time to defend its World Series title.
Can the Rangers keep its offense rolling in Miami against the Marlins?
I have bets for that game as well as every matchup on the Friday MLB slate.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Reds vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cubs (-150)
Both teams are in the bottom three in terms of OPS this month, only the White Sox are worse than each, but I’ll back the home favorite Cubs with the pitching edge in Javier Assad.
Assad has a nasty fast ball that ranks in the 98th percentile in terms of run value and has upped his strikeout rate to a career best 22%.
Cardinals vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Phillies (-190)
The Cardinals have erased a slow start to the year with the team’s bats coming alive, but its the pitching that is giving me pause on Friday in Philadelphia.
Miles Mikolas ranks in the 19th percentile in terms of xERA and 11th percentile in xBA while missing no bats, fifth percentile in whiff percentage. The Phillies top five hitting offense should tee off at home.
Rays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick
Pick: Orioles (-150)
Albert Suarez has been a pleasant addition to the Orioles’ pitching staff. The converted bullpen arm has been elite this season, posting a 1.53 ERA with an strong ability to limit the long ball, allowing a barrel percentage of less than four percent.
I’ll trust the home favorite to win against Aaron Civale and the Rays, as Civale is sixth in run value on his pitches.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Pirates (+140)
Jose Berrios continues to be a prime regression candidate, skating by with a 2.94 ERA that is supported by an xERA of 4.49. Berrios has been incredibly fortunate not to be crushed by hard contact this season, 11th percentile in hard-hit percentage.
I can’t justify this price on Friday.
Rangers vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rangers (-125)
Are the defending World Series Champions starting to turn the corner? Texas isn’t dominant in the wins and losses column, but still only three games back and starting to get production from Corey Seager in the lineup (hitting .361 with eight home runs in the last 10 games).
The team is far more talented than the Marlins, who have the second lowest OPS, making this a great launching pad for the Rangers mid-season push.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (-120)
Luis Severino has had a resurgent campaign for the Mets, posting a 3.22 ERA while doing a great job of limiting hard contact (60th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 86th percentile in barrel percentage), and I like him to keep it rolling at home as a small favorite against the Diamondbacks.
Arizona is 27th in OPS in the month of May, making this a tough matchup against a pitcher of Severino’s caliber.
Tigers vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick
Pick: Red Sox (-170)
Tanner Houck is putting up Cy Young numbers for the Red Sox, 1.70 ERA while walking less than five percent of batters, so he should be able to thrive against the Tigers lineup that is hitting only .235 as a group (19th in the big leagues).
Boston draws a far easier matchup in Kenta Maeda, who is striking out a career low 15% of batters.
Nationals vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
Pick: Guardians (-220)
Cleveland is a dangerous lineup against left handers, and the team will face one of the worst in the big leagues in Patrick Corbin.
The Guardians are fourth in OPS against southpaws this season, and now face Corbin, who is in the bottom five percentile in the following categories: strikeout rate, fastball run value, xERA and xBA.
Cleveland should roll at home.
Athletics vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Pick: Athletics (+175)
I’ll take a flier on the A’s on the road with JP Sears on the mound.
Sears has a nasty set of breaking ball pitches that ranks in the 88th percentile in terms of run value and 90th percentile on his offspeed pitches. He’ll face a Braves team that is top 10 in hitting lefties, but has been less productive in the month of May, just 21st in OPS and adjusting to the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. for the season.
Further, Reynaldo Lopez is a prime regression candidate. He has an xERA of 3.92, far higher than his ERA of 1.75.
Padres vs. Royals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (+110)
Dylan Cease is talented, but the Royals are an auto-bet at home, especially as underdogs.
Kansas City, who has a capable arm in Michael Wacha on the mound Friday, are 21-8 at Kauffman Stadium this season and 12-8 as a home underdog.
The Royals continue to be mispriced.
White Sox vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick
Pick: White Sox (+140)
Erick Fedde has been pitching at a high level for the White Sox, posting a career high strikeout rate (22.1%) with a career best walk rate (sub-seven percent), and I’ll back him as a road underdog on Friday.
Twins vs. Astros Prediction and Pick
Pick: Twins (-105)
Minnesota will hope Pablo Lopez can find his best form, and it’s coming in the near future.
Lopez has a 5.26 ERA, but that’s supported by an xERA of 3.26 and a career best walk rate of just four percent. Lopez has been on the wrong end of batted ball variance but should turn it around soon, and I think this is an advantageous price to back Minnesota against the Astros.
Angels vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mariners (-175)
Seattle has a serious pitching edge on the mound with Bryan Woo set to start.
Woo missed the start of the season, but the second year pro has been fantastic in four starts, posting a 1.66 ERA with an improved walk rate to less than three percent.
Rockies vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Dodgers (-325)
Walker Buehler hasn’t been his elite self since returning from injury, but the early returns are still promising.
He has posted an ERA of 4.26, but his xERA is 3.70 while walking a career best less than four percentage of batters while allowing hard contact at a career best rate of just 30%. As long as he continues to allow soft contact, the better starts should come as he continues to work himself into his elite self.
Against the Rockies, the Dodgers should roll to a victory.
Yankees vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
Pick: Giants (+115)
The Yankees stay out west and face one of the most impressive pitchers to date this season in Jordan Hicks of the Giants.
Hicks has lowed his walk rate as he begins to work his offspeed pitches in more than being a hard throwing reliever. The converted bullpen arm for the Cardinals has ranked in the 94th percentile in terms of his offspeed run value while taking some off his fastball to make more movement (89th percentile).
At an underdog price, I’ll back San Francisco at home.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.