Betsided

Texans vs. Chiefs NFL Best Bets for Divisional Round (A Slow Start at Arrowhead Stadium?)

Here are 3 bets to consider for Saturday's AFC Divisional Round clash.

By Shelby Dermer

Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) is tackled by Houston Texans defensive tackle Mario Edwards Jr. (97) during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) is tackled by Houston Texans defensive tackle Mario Edwards Jr. (97) during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
facebooktwitterreddit

Three of the four Divisional Round playoff matchups this weekend are rematches from the regular season. The action starts on Saturday when the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs return to Arrowhead Stadium to host the Houston Texans. 

In Week 16 at the same venue, Kansas City pulled away from Houston for a 27-19 victory. The Chiefs are currently 8.5-point favorites and the total of the game is set at 41.5 points. 

Here are three bets to consider for the matchup. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Texans vs. Chiefs NFL Best Bets for Divisional Round 

  • Texans-Chiefs 1st Half UNDER 20.5 Points 
  • Joe Mixon UNDER 16.5 Rushing Attempts 
  • Samaje Perine OVER 10.5 Receiving Yards 

Texans vs. Chiefs 1st Half UNDER 20.5 Points (-105)

The “Rest vs. Rust” debate should take center stage in this matchup considering the Kansas City Chiefs’ starters have been off since Christmas, when the team locked up the No. 1 seed with a win in Pittsburgh. 

Taking out Week 18, when Kansas City rested its starters in a 38-0 loss to Denver, the Chiefs’ games have gone under this first-half total in four of the last five games. 

It’s been a similar slow story in Houston, with five of the last six Texans’ games failing to reach 20 first-half points. Having played each other less than a month ago, there should be new wrinkles for each team in this matchup but the defenses lead the way. 

Houston is No. 6 in first-half scoring defense (9.3 points per game) and Kansas City is tied for No. 7 (9.6). In Houston’s case, Saturday will be about feeling out Kansas City’s scheme and letting a defense that sacked Justin Herbert four times in the Wild Card Round go to work. 

Joe Mixon UNDER 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-130)

Mixon has actually shined on the road this season with 772 of his yards coming away from home. Mixon averages 5.1 yards per carry on the road this season but we’ll go with the under for this prop against a formidable Kansas City front. 

Mixon has been boom or bust for the Texans this season. After going for 106 yards against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round, we’ll look to fade him in this spot. Prior to the win over LA, Mixon has gone under this attempts prop in four consecutive games and five of six overall. That includes a 14-carry, 57-yard performance the last time around against Kansas City.

The Chiefs are No. 8 in the NFL in rushing defense and will likely load the box against Houston to force C.J. Stroud to beat them through the air with a banged-up receiving unit that is top-heavy with Nico Collins running the show. 

Mixon was held to just 3.4 yards per carry in Houston’s losses this season. As an 8.5-point underdog, we have to project Kansas City pulls this one out and the game script calls for less Mixon and more Stroud attempts (34.5 - +100/-125). 

Samaje Perine OVER 10.5 Receiving Yards (-105)

The Kansas City backfield is certainly an enigma with leading rusher Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, back from injury, each averaging less than four yards per carry. 

Perine, a veteran running back in his first season with the Chiefs, has over triple the amount of receiving yards (322) this season than rushing (92). Perine does the dirty work as a great running back in pass protection, which is one of the reasons he gets on the field. 

When protection eventually breaks down, Perine is a nice security blanket out of the backfield. It led to four consecutive seasons with at least 27 catches and Perine has gone over this receiving yardage prop in 12 of the last 13 games and seven overall. 

One of the many areas of the game Patrick Mahomes excels at is avoiding sacks. That can mean getting out of the pocket and chucking it out of bounds or finding your check-down options to stay ahead of the chains. That’s where Perine comes in. 

Against a Houston defense that ranked No. 4 in sacks during the regular season, Perine should be a nice option out of the backfield for Mahomes once again. Perine had a season-high 50 receiving yards in the first matchup with Houston and we’ll target him in the rematch. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

Home/NFL Picks