Betsided

College Football Playoff Semifinal Betting Guide for Cincinnati vs. Alabama | Georgia vs. Michigan

By Reed Wallach

Jul 22, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; The College Football Playoff national championship trophy
Jul 22, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; The College Football Playoff national championship trophy / Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

We have arrived at the College Football Playoff!

Both semifinal matchups are set for Friday, December 31st between No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Cincinnati and No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Michigan.

Below you can find our keys to each team's path to advancing to the National Championship Game and our best bets.

All odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Get Reed's Keys For Every Team in the College Football Playoff:

Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Alabama (-13.5) vs. No. 4 Cincinnati (57.5)

While I wanted to find a path to bet Cincinnati, I won't be backing them unless we get buyback to the key number of +14. I believe the Bearcats' offense is going to struggle against the Alabama defensive front headlined by Will Anderson, who leads the country in sacks and tackles for loss.

The Bearcats' defense can hold up against the Alabama offense that will be down key wide receiver John Metchie and a vulnerable offensive line that is well below Nick Saban's standards. The unit ranks outside the top 50 in offensive line yards and pass blocking.

I see a very slow start for Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young and the Crimson Tide passing game as they ease into the game against the Bearcats defense that is No. 1 in the country in takeaways. Young only has four interceptions on the year and definitely doesn't want to breathe life into the double digit underdogs.

A key stat to watch is Bryce Young when the pocket collapses. The Cincy defense is top five at rushing the passer, and Young's completion percentage drops to 47% under pressure, per Pro Football Focus. I believe that the Bearcats can get home, especially early in the game and Young taking a few early sacks.

In a game that I project at a total of 59, I believe there is still value in taking the under at the key number 58 if that number reappears considering the expected game script.

In the meantime, I bet on the 1H Under 29.5 considering I expected a super cautious start from the explosive Crimson Tide side and the Bearcats to struggle to put points on the board.

PICK: Under 58 when available, 1H Under 29.5

Orange Bowl: No. 2 Georgia (-7.5) vs. No. 3 Michigan (45.5)

Can Michigan score enough to drag Georgia into deep waters? I'm going to say yes.

The Wolverines are not as explosive as Alabama, but they are very efficient; 25th in offensive success rate this season. This is a run first offense that hands it off on more than 60% of plays and going into the best defensive line in the country, but I believe the Wolverines are going to be able to use perimeter runs to keep the Bulldogs at bay to free Cade McNamara to go to the air.

The team has a capable running quarterback in J.J. McCarthy as well, keep an eye on him to make a few big plays with his legs.

If the Wolverines can start hot and make Georgia abandon the run, it can be open season for potential No. 1 pick Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo to make life difficult for Stetson Bennett.

We saw the Bulldogs struggle against Alabama in the SEC Championship, and I can see defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald forcing Bennett into a few mistakes over the course of the game.

I see this game as somewhat binary, if the game goes over the total, Michigan will win, if it stays under, that means Georgia imposed their will and grinded out a semifinal victory.

If the game stays below the total of 45.5, taking the underdog of over touchdown is valuable, so I believe Michigan is the best bet in the Orange Bowl.

PICK: Michigan +7.5, ML +240

Home/NCAAF Picks