College Football Upset Picks in Week 6: Notre Dame, LSU and Oregon State Face Road Tests

The college football picture is starting to take shape and schedules are starting to create valuable betting opportunities for us sports bettors on a weekly basiss.

Notre Dame is in the midst of a grueling schedule that features its third consecutive night game against a ranked foe, second on the road, while LSU looks far more vulnerable than expected in 2023. Both of these teams, including Oregon State face challenging road tests and should be on upset alert come Saturday.

Let me explain why I see three live underdogs in marquee matchups on Saturday, but first you can't miss this Caesars Sportsbook promotion. For new users, you can sign up below and get your first bet matched up to $1,000! All you have to do is sign up!

College Football Upset Picks for Week 6

• Louisville (+185) vs. Notre Dame
• Missouri (+195) vs. LSU
• Oregon State (+300) vs. Oregon State

Louisville vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

As noted in my Top 25 picks against the spread column, this is a brutal spot for the road-weary Irish:

[Notre Dame is] playing its seventh straight game to start the season and second consecutive road game. Notre Dame started the year in Dublin, Ireland against Navy and hasn't had a bye week yet, now finishing a stretch that includes an emotional home loss to Ohio State and a last-minute win against Duke.

Now the team travels to Louisville to face an undefeated Cardinals team that was somewhat exposed against North Carolina State on the road last week, winning 13-10 after an explosive start to the season against underwhelming competition.

However, I believe that poor results give us some value on the home underdog. The Irish haven't been getting to the quarterback all that much, bottom half of the nation in sacks. That should give Jack Plummer, a relatively immobile quarterback some time to find the likes of Jamari Thrash downfield and into space.

Notre Dame has thrived at putting opponents behind the sticks, and the secondary is allowing a completion percentage of less than 47% this season, the best mark in college football, but Louisville has been dangerous in the passing game, averaging more than 10 yards per pass attempt (fifth nationally) and fourth in explosive pass rate.

With time to operate, Louisville can find answers against a normally stout Notre Dame secondary that can be running on fumes after two high leverage games to stay within the number.

Missouri vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

LSU hasn't been able to slow down either offense with a pulse that it has faced this season, allowing 55 to Ole Miss last week and 45 to Florida State in the opening game of the year. The Tigers are 128th in EPA/Pass this season and will face a rejuvenated Missouri passing game with Luther Burden taking center stage at wide receiver.

Mizzou is top 10 in both EPA/Pass and success rate this season with Burden shining thus far, hauling in 43 passes for 645 yards with five touchdowns.

LSU has far more talent on hand, but the defense makes it tough to trust the Bayou Bengals on the road against an undefeated group that has faced a fairly stout schedule that includes Kansas State.

With two losses already this season, it could be tough to get a real gauge on what the actual rating for LSU is, and this could present some value on the home underdog at a big number.

Oregon State vs. California Prediction and Pick

Oregon State has been able to thrive in particular game scripts, usually when ahead and having the ability to lean on the run game. However, when the team is forced to pass in competitive games, D.J. Uiagalelei has struggled.

Here is what I shared in my game preview:

The [Beavers are] second in success rate on the ground and able to wash games away with its ability to stay ahead of the sticks and keep the clock moving.

Cal is going to provide some resistance in this one and dare the Beavers to pass. The Golden Bears are top 10 in EPA/Rush this season and are fifth in Pro Football Focus' tackling grade. Further, the team is 40th in defensive line yards, not allowing offensive lines to bully the team at the line of scrimmage.

If Cal is able to generate a few stops and force Uiagalelei to pass, the turnover minded defense can make some plays. The team is second in the country in turnovers gained with 13 on the season and the Clemson transfer is struggling on deep passes, completing less than 50% of his passes beyond 10 yards down field.

Meanwhile, we are still looking to learn about this Oregon State defense as the unit hasn't faced a decent rush offense this season. Washington State is based solely around the pass and the team faced a soft non conference schedule. While the defense is stout, the team is below the national average in tackling according to PFF, and its top five yards per carry allowed mark has come against teams that are 60th or worse in rush grade this season.

Cal has some edges on offense that can test Oregon State and make this game a chore on the road given the team's underrated offense and stout rush defense. While some may point to the Washington blowout loss as a downgrade, Oregon State can't take advantage of the Cal secondary like Michael Penix and the Huskies did.

For what it's worth, Justin Wilcox has thrived in this particular spot as head coach of the Golden Bears. He is 26-12-1 against the spread as an underdog, and 21-7 when catching more than four points.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!