Oregon State got back on track last week by beating two-time defending PAC-12 champions Utah at home, but are back on the road to face Cal on Saturday night.
The Beavers lost last time it played on the road against Washington State as favorites, could it be in trouble once again against an upstart Cal team that has found a renewed offense this season. Can the Bears pick up its first signature win of the season with a home upset against Oregon State?
Here are the odds, key player and our best bet on this PAC-12 matchup.
Oregon State vs. California Odds, Spread and Total
California vs. Oregon State Betting Trends
- Oregon State is 3-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
- California is 2-3 ATS this season
- Oregon State has gone OVER in both road games this season
- California has gone UNDER in all three home games this season
Oregon State vs. California How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, October 7
- Game Time: 10:00 PM EST
- Venue: California Memorial Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): PAC-12 Network
- Oregon State Record: 4-1
- California Record: 3-2
Oregon State vs. California Key Players to Watch
D.J. Uiagalelei: Uiagalelei is starting to struggle as a passer as the competition picks up in league play. He only completed 56% of his passes against Utah after completing 50% of his passes against Washington State for a total of 402 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. While the Beavers have a devastating run game, the team has struggled in passing situatios, just 68th in passing success rate.
Jaydn Ott: The Golden Bears running back has been a monster this season, rushing for nearly six yards per carry with five touchdowns as he is the engine behind the team's top 15 rush game in terms of EPA/Rush.
Oregon State vs. California Prediction and Pick
Oregon State is built to thrive in a particular game script when its ahead and able to lean on its potent ground game with the likes of Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick. The team is second in success rate on the ground and able to wash games away with its ability to stay ahead of the sticks and keep the clock moving.
However, Cal is going to provide some resistance in this one and dare the Beavers to pass. The Golden Bears are top 10 in EPA/Rush this season and are fifth in Pro Football Focus' tackling grade. Further, the team is 40th in defensive line yards, not allowing offensive lines to bully the team at the line of scrimmage.
If Cal is able to generate a few stops and force Uiagalelei to pass, the turnover minded defense can make some plays. The team is second in the country in turnovers gained with 13 on the season and the Clemson transfer is struggling on deep passes, completing less than 50% of his passes beyond 10 yards down field.
Meanwhile, we are still looking to learn about this Oregon State defense as the unit hasn't faced a decent rush offense this season. Washington State is based solely around the pass and the team faced a soft non conference schedule. While the defense is stout, the team is below the national average in tackling according to PFF, and its top five yards per carry allowed mark has come against teams that are 60th or worse in rush grade this season.
Cal has some edges on offense that can test Oregon State and make this game a chore on the road given the team's underrated offense and stout rush defense. While some may point to the Washington blowout loss as a downgrade, Oregon State can't take advantage of the Cal secondary like Michael Penix and the Huskies did.
For what it's worth, Justin Wilcox has thrived in this particular spot as head coach of the Golden Bears. He is 26-12-1 against the spread as an underdog, and 21-7 when catching more than four points.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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