College Football Picks Against the Spread For Every Top 25 Game in Week 6
By Reed Wallach
The calendar flips to October in college football with some of the most important games to date on the docket for Week 6.
Texas and Oklahoma meet in the annual Red River Showdown on Saturday afternoon in a battle of unbeaten teams, highlighting a massive slate that includes ranked squads like Alabama, Notre Dame, and Washington State facing stiff road tests.
We have you covered with picks against the spread for every top-25 matchup on the board this week, let's get into it. But first, let me tell you about this sweet new Caesars Sportsbook promotion. If you sign up using the link below, you will become eligible to have your first bet matched up to $1,000!
No. 20 Kentucky vs. No. 1 Georgia Prediction and Pick
PICK: Georgia -14.5
The two-time defending National Champions haven't covered a point spread yet, but this is an overreaction to recent results and not projecting a likely game script on Saturday night at Sanford Stadium.
Kentucky was able to hit several explosive runs of 280 yards from Ray Davis, but that won't be there against a Georgia defense that is allowing fewer than four yards per carry and grades out as the 11th-best tackling unit, per Pro Football Focus.
I don't envision UK sustaining long drives in this game and generating scoring opportunities against this Bulldogs defense as Devin Leary is still struggling under center, the Kentucky pass game is in the bottom half of the country in EPA/Pass despite playing a strength of schedule that is outside the top 100 nationally.
Meanwhile, Georgia unlocked Brock Bowers in the second half of the Auburn win and remains a potent offense, even if not overly explosive. The team is 13th in the country in points per drive, scoring more than three on average when it has the ball, and 11th in success rate.
I believe the Bulldogs overpower the Wildcats and cover the spread for the first time this season.
No. 2 Michigan vs. Minnesota Prediction and Pick
PICK: Michigan -19.5
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 12 Oklahoma Prediction and Pick
PICK: Texas -6.5
As discussed in my early week betting preview, I'm not sold on Oklahoma's run game to hold up against a stout Texas defense that can put the Sooners in obvious passing situations too often to keep up with the Longhorns.
The Longhorns check in the top 20 in terms of yards per play, mixing in a vertical passing game that features more than nine yards per pass attempt with a ground game that is racking up nearly five yards per carry.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma has benefitted from an aggressive passing game with senior quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who is pushing the ball down the field at over 10 yards per pass (11th in the country) and completing 76% of his passes (third). However, the Sooners are rushing for less than four yards per carry, the bottom half of the nation.
This is the turning point in this matchup. If Oklahoma is going to be forced into obvious passing situations, I'll rely on the Texas defense to get enough stops to pull away and cover this point spread. The Longhorns are inside the top 40 nationally in terms of rush defense and coverage grading, per Pro Football Focus, meaning that Gabriel will need to make up for the team's lack of rush success rate with big throws downfield. That may be tough to come by against a Longhorns defense that is top 20 in EPA/Pass this season.
Maryland vs. No. 4 Ohio State Prediction and Pick
PICK: Maryland +20.5
Virginia Tech vs. No. 5 Florida State Prediction and Pick
PICK: Florida State -24
Arizona vs. No. 9 USC Prediction and Pick
PICK: Arizona +21.5
The Trojans defense gives me pause when expecting the team to win by more than three touchdowns against a potent Arizona offense. The Wildcats are onto backup quarterback, Noah Fiftia, but he looked the part against Washington in a seven-point loss last week behind an emerging U of A offensive line.
Fiftia completed 26-of-38 passes for 234 yards with three touchdowns and has an offensive line that grades out as the third-best pass-blocking unit in the country in front of him. While USC has firepower on defense, the unit is 97th in tackling and 91st in EPA/Play.
The cover will be in play all game for the Wildcats on the road against this listless defense.
No. 10 Notre Dame vs. No. 25 Louisville Prediction and Pick
PICK: Louisville +6.5
This is a tough spot for the Fighting Irish, playing its seventh straight game to start the season and second consecutive road game. Notre Dame started the year in Dublin, Ireland against Navy and hasn't had a bye week yet, now finishing a stretch that includes an emotional home loss to Ohio State and a last-minute win against Duke.
Now the team travels to Louisville to face an undefeated Cardinals team that was somewhat exposed against North Carolina State on the road last week, winning 13-10 after an explosive start to the season against underwhelming competition.
However, I believe that poor results give us some value on the home underdog. The Irish haven't been getting to the quarterback all that much, bottom half of the nation in sacks. That should give Jack Plummer, a relatively immobile quarterback some time to find the likes of Jamari Thrash downfield and into space.
Notre Dame has thrived at putting opponents behind the sticks, and the secondary is allowing a completion percentage of less than 47% this season, the best mark in college football, but Louisville has been dangerous in the passing game, averaging more than 10 yards per pass attempt (fifth nationally) and fourth in explosive pass rate.
With time to operate, Louisville can find answers against a normally stout Notre Dame secondary that can be running on fumes after two high leverage games to stay within the number
No. 11 Alabama vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick
PICK: Texas A&M +2.5
No. 13 Washington State vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick
PICK: UCLA -3.5
I believe we are getting a discount on the Bruins against the upstart Cougars, who deserve a noted bump in power ratings after beating Oregon State by double digits as a small home underdog. However, this is a big adjustment as the team is now on the road to face a talented UCLA offense.
Last time we saw the Bruins ahead of its bye week, freshman Dante Moore struggled in a 14-7 loss at Utah against the best defense in the PAC-12. A pick-six on the first play of the game put the Bruins behind the ball and the team squandered too many chances to pull the upset.
Now, the team will face a far softer defense in Washington State. The Cougars are outside the top 100 in rush defense grading, per Pro Football Focus, which can open up the offense for the Bruins as the team has a devastating stable of running backs. UCLA is 32nd in success rate on the ground with two running backs Carson Steele and TJ Hardern rushing for at least six yards per carry.
Meanwhile, UCLA's pass rush should give Cam Ward and the Washington State offensive line fits. This is a team that can't run the ball, outside the top 100 in yards per carry, setting up obvious passing situations for the Cougars. However, UCLA's defense is second in the nation in PFF's pass rush grade.
Take advantage of the reduced spread on UCLA.
Syracuse vs. No. 14 North Carolina Prediction and Pick
PICK: North Carolina -8.5
No. 15 Oregon State vs. California Prediction and Pick
PICK: California +9.5
Arkansas vs. No. 16 Ole Miss Prediction and Pick
PICK: Ole Miss -11.5
Georgia Tech vs. No. 17 Miami (Florida) Prediction and Pick
PICK: Georgia Tech +21
No. 23 LSU vs. No. 21 Missouri Prediction and Pick
PICK: Missouri +6.5
No. 24 Fresno State vs. Wyoming Prediction and Pick
PICK: Wyoming +6
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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