Oklahoma vs. Texas Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 6

The two remaining unbeatens in the Big 12 meet in a measuring stick game for both teams.

Texas and Oklahoma meet in the Red River Showdown on Saturday afternoon on a neutral field with each team looking to take the inside track to the College Football Playoff with a win, and a possible Heisman Trophy launching pad for the likes of Quinn Ewers and Dillon Gabriel.

The Longhorns enter as the considerable favorite as Oklahoma has taken care of a relatively light schedule, but how should we bet this one? Get ready for this marquee matchup with our betting breakdown.

Oklahoma vs. Texas Odds, Spread and Total

Texas vs. Oklahoma Betting Trends

• Oklahoma is 5-0 against the spread (ATS)
• Texas is 3-2 ATS this season
• Texas has gone UNDER in four of five games
• Texas has gone UNDER in all four games as a favorite

Oklahoma vs. Texas How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, October 7th
• Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
• Venue: Cotton Bowl Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Oklahoma Record: 5-0
• Texas Record: 5-0

Oklahoma vs. Texas Key Players to Watch

Oklahoma

Dillon Gabriel: Gabriel has been flawless this season, engineering the best offense in terms of pass success rate in the country. He is completed 79% of his passes with 15 touchdowns to one interceptions while averaging nearly 10 yards per dropback. However, he will face the best defense this season with a still unproven group of wide receivers.

Texas

Quinn Ewers: The third choice to win the Heisman Trophy has passed every test this season and will look to continue to hit explosives through the air. The team is 19th in EPA/Play and has increased its explosive pass rate inside the top 10 this season after checking in outside the top 100 last year. Ewers has been on point all season, completing 65% of his passes heading into this one.

Oklahoma vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

As noted in my early week preview, I believe Texas has several edges on both sides of the ball that justifies that the Longhorns are considerable favorites.

"The Longhorns check in the top 20 in terms of yards per play, mixing in a vertical passing game that features more than nine yards per pass attempt with a ground game that is racking up nearly five yards per carry."

While Oklahoma's offense looks explosive this season, I believe that the team will struggle down-to-down to stay ahead of the sticks given that the team is averaging less than four yards per carry, which is bottom half of the country.

"This is the turning point in this matchup [OU's lack of running game]. If Oklahoma is going to be forced into obvious passing situations, I'll rely on the Texas defense to get enough stops to pull away and cover this point spread. The Longhorns are inside the top 40 nationally in terms of rush defense and coverage grading, per Pro Football Focus, meaning that Gabriel will need to make up for the team's lack of rush success rate with big throws downfield. That may be tough to come by against a Longhorns defense that is top 20 in EPA/Pass this season."

I also believe that Oklahoma is a bit overrated given its easy schedule and ability to overachieve in key spots like third downs and red zone defense.

"OU's defense gives me pause in this game. The team stymied Iowa State in the second half but also allowed an explosive play rate of 10% (70th percentile compared to games in 2022). The team was outgained by SMU in a 17-point win at home but has allowed a third down conversion percentage of 27% and red zone touchdown percentage of 37%, both top 11 in the nation. The tam has succeeded in high leverage situations, but those results are fickle, ripe to be exposed by a better opponent.

"The Sooners are a serious regression candidate when the competition picks up, I believe the Longhorns are a cut above and take care of business in what should be a high-scoring affair."

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!