The “Don’t eat the cheese series” was designed to help you avoid those players that will ruin your fantasy football season. Don’t let that tight end become a black hole in your fantasy lineups. Which 5 tight ends should you avoid in 2017 during your upcoming fantasy football draft?
Do you have trouble finding a tight end in fantasy football drafts? Do you get frustrated searching for a productive tight end after missing out on Rob Gronkowski or Travis Kelce? Well look no further, the “Don’t eat the cheese” series continues to help you avoid those disastrous tight end options that could cost you the win. After dissecting the quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers, the tight ends are up next.
My golden rule with avoiding wide receivers will continue at the tight end spot as you will notice most of their quarterbacks are not premier options. Unlike years ago, the NFL has featured more and more tight ends in an offense. Fullbacks are essentially extinct while teams have shifted to two tight end sets. There are a bounty of pass catching tight ends, it’s just a matter of finding the right one.
Also, keep in mind, your league rules will have severe implications on your draft choices. If you play a PPR style, targeting a tight end that comes away with a ton of receptions is smart business. Dennis Pitta, Travis Kelce, and Kyle Rudolph were the top receptions leaders at the position. For this post, I will proceed with the standard rules of a non-PPR format. Who are the five tight ends you should avoid in your upcoming fantasy football draft?
5. Jared Cook
If you can’t put up numbers with Aaron Rodgers, then there is probably something wrong. Cook caught just one touchdown in 2016 appearing in 10 games. Coming away with 30 receptions and 377 yards just isn’t acceptable fantasy production. I’m not so sure things change with Cook signing with the Raiders this offseason.
Derek Carr was the MVP a year ago in my opinion but he loves to spread the ball around. Amari Cooper fantasy owners know this all too well a year ago where Michael Crabtree and Seth Roberts stole a ton of points away from him. Carr threw for 28 touchdowns but outside of Crabtree’s eight, no one caught more than five in 2016. The tight end spot wasn’t utilized a ton in the passing game last season. Was that because Clive Walford wasn’t ready for primetime or did he fail to produce? Nevertheless, I’m not convinced Cook is an upgrade over Walford.
Walford, 25, is a former third round pick of the Raiders and could be in for a breakout season. After hauling in six touchdowns the past two years, it’s possible Walford has that type of season that forces him into heavy playing time. With Cook set to head into his 30s, are we sure he’s really the better option over Walford?
Marshawn Lynch’s involvement with the Raiders could dictate that as a blocking tight end may be imperative to moving the chains. Cook frankly isn’t known as a great blocking tight end. Latavius Murray had 12 rushing touchdowns in 2016. It’s possible some of those go towards the passing game but more likely will be punched in by Lynch if he proves to be a capable runner.
4. Antonio Gates
Can we all agree that the Antonio Gates show is essentially over with the Chargers? After learning the ropes a year ago, Hunter Henry is poised to take over the primary tight end option. Henry had a great rookie year cashing in on eight touchdowns. It’s tough to see the Chargers not transitioning to the young stud at some point this year. Even if Gates is the starter at the beginning of the year, will that be the case by the fantasy playoffs?
Gates was still productive in 2016, but that has to slow down at some point, right? Gates, 37, caught seven touchdowns for 548 yards. Is 2017 the year Antonio Gates falls apart of will he be similar to Frank Gore and never slow down? Even if Gates is featured in the offense, this is more about Hunter Henry. If you haven’t joined the Henry bandwagon, I advise that you do so before it’s too late.
At 6-foot-5, Henry is a big red zone target for Philip Rivers. It’s a big reason why he came away with eight touchdowns as a rookie. The former second round pick from Arkansas is a catch first tight end and not really involved in blocking sets. Henry is a part of the new era of the tight end position where he does his damage in the passing game. Even if Gates isn’t ready to retire just yet, there’s a big chance Henry’s production forces the Chargers hand and positions himself as the starter.
3. Julius Thomas
Was Julius Thomas ever a good player or more just a beneficiary of Peyton Manning’s offense? Thomas caught 24 touchdowns during his last two years in Denver compared to nine in Jacksonville. Now Thomas is headed to Miami but the results probably won’t change, he isn’t the same player without Peyton Manning. Are we really expecting a bounce back year from Thomas with Jay Cutler under center?
Thomas recorded 281 yards in nine games with the Jaguars a year ago. How can a tight end have any sort of value reeling in such a low yardage total? He also hasn’t been healthy never playing a full 16 game season ever. Thomas, 29, has missed 12 games over the past two seasons.
Also keep in mind that Blake Bortles, for all his faults, wasn’t a bad fantasy quarterback a year ago. He threw for almost 4,000 yards, most of which coming in garbage time. Thomas just couldn’t ever take advantage. Now he gets to work with Jay Cutler who just came out of retirement because of Ryan Tannehill’s knee injury. I’m not sure anyone knows what to make of Cutler’s arrival in Miami so rolling the dice on a Thomas pick seems risky business.
To play devil’s advocate, maybe Adam Gase knows something we don’t. Gase was Denver’s offensive coordinator when Thomas had his best years. Cutler did have his best year in quite some time under Gase in Chicago so maybe there’s a reason to connect the dots. The only problem is Peyton Manning won’t be under center this time.
2. Zach Ertz
I’ve never understood the Zach Ertz hype train and yet again here we are. Fantasy pundits have Ertz ranked high on their tight end lists despite being very mediocre in his four-year career. Ertz, 26, has never had more than four touchdowns in a season. He’s also never had 900 receiving yards in a season. I’m not so sure what there is to love?
Philadelphia also added a bunch of new weapons which could reduce the number of targets headed his way in 2017. Ertz had 78 receptions a year ago but the new additions of Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith, and a pair of rookie wide receivers make things interesting. Jeffery is betting on himself with a one-year deal and might be poised for a breakout season. At 6-foot-3, if Jeffery becomes the Eagles red zone target it’s tough to see Ertz making a big jump in the touchdown department.
In the end, this will could come down to the progression of Carson Wentz. The Eagles signal caller threw just 16 touchdowns over 16 games. If Wentz is ready to take that next step, Ertz’s numbers should improve as well. Then again, it really hasn’t mattered who the Eagles quarterback has been, Ertz hasn’t been worth a high second round draft choice. If you remember, Ertz couldn’t take advantage of Nick Foles’ fluky 27 touchdown season in 2013 either. I’m staying away from Ertz until he proves otherwise.
1. Jordan Reed
There’s talk of Jordan Reed possibly being the number one fantasy tight end in 2017. In my opinion, Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, and Tyler Eifert should all be considered ahead of Reed. While Reed has a capable quarterback that can get him the ball, there are a ton of concerns with his fantasy potential in 2017.
The first is that he is dealing with a nagging toe injury. Reed is still on the P.U.P. list and will not play in the preseason opener against the Ravens. Never overlook a toe injury, they can ruin a player’s entire season. Even if his injury is no big deal, Reed has never played an entire 16 game season. Are you willing to risk a high draft pick for a tight end who’s health you constantly have to worry about?
Next: Fantasy football: 5 running back busts in 2017
Another thing to keep in mind is that the Redskins offense runs a ton of two tight end sets. Vernon Davis started 14 of the 16 games. Reed came away with 66 catches in 2016, but Vernon Davis wasn’t too far behind with 44. There’s always that chance that Davis simply ends up cashing in on more red zone chances if teams decide to lock in on Reed.
Reed did catch six touchdowns in 2016 but didn’t catch any in 2014. It’s impossible to project how many touchdowns a player will score but Davis’ high usage in the Redskins offense limits Reed’s potential. Nevertheless, if Reed is worth the hype, Washington will have to improve on their red zone touchdown percentage ranking No. 30 in the NFL (45.9%). Don’t eat the cheese on Jordan Reed in 2017!