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Best College Football Upset Picks for Conference Championship Week

Breaking down the best College Football upset picks for Championship Week

By Marty Coleman

Oct 12, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin locks arms with players as they head on to United Airlines Field for the game against the USC Trojans at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Oct 12, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin locks arms with players as they head on to United Airlines Field for the game against the USC Trojans at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
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After three consecutive weeks of positive returns, things get a little tougher this week with a limited number of games to choose from.

Despite the low volume, there's value to be found in several contests that has me hopeful of continuing the streak.

MAC Championship: Ohio Bobcats vs Miami-Ohio RedHawks

Last week we rode the RedHawks to a win at +110, but this week the roles are reversed and I like the Bobcats to take down Miami-Ohio straight up.

That may seem counterintuitive since the RedHawks thrashed the Bobcats earlier this season, jumping out to a 30-6 lead, before Ohio scored twice to make the final 30-20.

Turnovers killed the Bobcats that day as two Parker Navarro interceptions led to two Miami touchdowns.

That was the last loss of the season for Ohio, as they've averaged almost 38 points per game since, hitting 40 three times and 35 another over their last five contests.

Miami is on a heater themselves, running off seven straight after starting the season 1-4.

Despite the earlier result, the spread is only two and that should provide some insight into why I'm taking a shot on the underdog in this one.

PICK: Ohio Money Line +106

Big 12 Championship: Iowa State Cyclones vs Arizona State Sun Devils

This is another contrarian play as most of the trends favor Arizona State in this one.

These two didn't meet up in the regular season with each on their way to 7-2 conference marks and 10-2 records overall.

Iowa State jumped out to a 7-0 start before losing back to back games against Texas Tech and Kansas, while Arizona State lost two road games - Texas Tech and Cincinnati.

Both teams lost to Texas Tech, while Arizona State beat Kansas and Iowa State beat Cincinnati.

All that leads me to the chaos of the Big 12 and a conference where anyone can win on any given Saturday.

I'm a believer in Matt Campbell and think he'll have his team ready to play.

PICK: Iowa State Money Line +105

Big 10 Championship: Penn State Nittany Lions vs Oregon Ducks

There is one undefeated team in FBS Football and it's the Oregon Ducks, who take on James Franklin and Penn State on Saturday.

For a long stretch, I believed the Ducks were the clear-cut best team in the nation.

But looking closer, cracks appear. A 10-point win over Idaho in the opener. Needing 10 points in the last ten minutes of the fourth quarter to edge Boise State. A 1-point win at home against Ohio State that took a major Buckeye meltdown. A three-point win at 5-7 Wisconsin.

Penn State has had some close calls, too and given Franklin's record in big games, I considered passing on this one, but ultimately I'm playing the numbers and I have to have faith in my system.

Penn State Money Line +145

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

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