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Best College Football Upset Picks for Week 12 (Back West Virginia)

Breaking down the best College Football upset picks for Week 12

By Marty Coleman

West Virginia running back Jahiem White carries the ball in the first half of an NCAA football game against Penn State, Saturday, August 31, 2024, in Morgantown, W. Va.
West Virginia running back Jahiem White carries the ball in the first half of an NCAA football game against Penn State, Saturday, August 31, 2024, in Morgantown, W. Va. / Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK
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As I like to say, College football is the greatest reality show on earth.

Sure, the NFL may be the highest level of football in the world, but nothing beats a Saturday full of wild endings and upsets and there's no reason we can't benefit from that craziness.

While it's a perennial struggle to stay above water betting favorites, a .500 or better record when you choose underdogs at plus money means a profit, even if your record is worse for the wear.

Here are my favorite four upset picks for Week 12.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners (Friday)

There was once so much potential for the Roadrunners, but now they look up and find themselves fighting for a winning record and sitting in sixth place in the American Athletic Conference after close losses the last two weeks.

I first noticed this number at +105 for the Roadrunners and that's where I jumped on it, but it's shifted now to UTSA -106.

The Roadrunners are 8-0 in their last eight at home and 5-1 in their last six against North Texas at home.

Take the Roadrunners as a short dog if you can find it before Friday's kickoff and I would even consider them around even money if that's the best you can find.

PICK: UTSA Money Line +114

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs Utah State Aggies

After a season-opening win over Robert Morris, Utah State was pummeled for six straight weeks before edging Wyoming and then got pummeled again.

While I'm not usually keen on taking a 2-7 team straight up, the number and series history say take the plus money on the Aggies.

There are road trips and there are Hawaii road trips and the road has not been kind to the Rainbow Warriors over the years. as they've racked up a 2-14 record against the spread in their last 16 away from home.

More to the point for this game though, Hawaii is 1-6 ATS and 0-7 straight up in their last seven against the Aggies.

PICK: Utah State Money Line +114

Baylor Bears vs West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia comes into Saturday's game against Baylor as a 2.5-point underdog and a little hard to get a grip on, even this late in the season.

There's still plenty for the Mountaineers to play for as they are technically just a game out of second place in the Big 12, though tiebreakers mean they are almost assuredly playing for a winning season and bowl.

I took this earlier in the week at +124, but it has now settled at +114. and I would take the Mountaineers at +110 or higher.

The Mountaineers are 6-0 straight up their last six times hosting Baylor, so history is in their favor and at less than a field goal underdog this feels like a bargain.

PICK: West Virginia Money Line +124

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Georgia State Panthers

The Red Wolves haven't been great on the road, losing outright in six of their last seven away from home.

On the flip side, they have dominated Georgia State no matter where the game is played, going 4-1 ATS in the last five and 6-2 straight up in the last eight.

I found this at +110 and it has since increased to +125.

PICK: Arkansas State Money Line +125

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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