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NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 7 (Target These 3 AFC Teams)

`Three of the best against the spread picks to make in Week 7. 

By Shelby Dermer

Oct 13, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) prepares to pass in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Oct 13, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) prepares to pass in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
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We’ve gone over the prop bets to target in Week 7, now it’s time to rundown the three best against the spread picks to make this week. Here are three to consider. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 7

  • Tennessee Titans (+9.5) at Buffalo Bills 
  • Cleveland Browns (+6) vs. Cincinnati Bengals 
  • Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals 

Tennessee Titans (+9.5) at Buffalo Bills 

This is all about the spot as the Buffalo Bills head into this matchup still taking a sigh of relief. After a 3-0 start, the Bills dropped back-to-back games before pulling out a 23-20 primetime win on Monday against the New York Jets. 

A big divisional win on primetime to snap a losing streak? Sounds like a flat spot to me with the Bills returning home fat and happy on a high note. Tennessee is nearing a double-digit underdog for a reason. Hoping to take the next step with a second-year quarterback, the Titans instead are staring at a potential 1-6 start with back-to-back road games where they’ll be monster underdogs. 

Do the Titans deserve to be lumped in with the rest of the NFL’s basement-dwelling one-win teams? Turnovers have hampered this team and Will Levis is to blame with his ill-timed back-breaking interceptions. Tennessee is -7 in turnover differential, which is 31st in the league. The Bills have been great at taking the ball away and keeping it secure at +8 in turnover differential, which is second only to the Packers. 

There’s bound to be some variance in the NFL, though, and we’re willing to fade this line move from +8 to +9.5 with the hope that a +10 pops up. Why? Because Tennessee still has the defense to contain Buffalo in a flat spot. The Titans are No. 1 in the NFL in yards allowed, No. 1 against the pass and No. 9 against the run while giving up just 22 points per game (13th). 

This is all about the spot as you have to hold your nose and hope you get a clean game from Levis. This is just too good of a spot to pass up after Buffalo’s win on Monday night. 

Cleveland Browns (+6) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Speaking of quarterbacks you don’t want to be on, here’s a wager that DeShaun Watson and company can keep it close on Sunday as big home divisional underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals. 

For starters, you have to mention Cincinnati’s road struggles in this in-state rivalry. The Bengals haven’t won in Cleveland since 2017. Last season, Cincinnati’s trip up north to begin the year ended in a 24-3 loss to the Watson-led Browns. 

In our three best prop bets for this week, we faded the Bengals team total (23.5) and that’s part of the bet on the Browns. Joe Burrow, despite an MVP-caliber start to the year, hasn’t scored 24-plus points against the Browns since his rookie season. Cleveland’s pass rush can still get home against a middle-of-the-road Cincinnati offensive line that allowed five sacks to the Giants Sunday night. 

Cleveland’s defense has kept the Browns in plenty of games this season and they can turn this into a low-scoring affair. Plus, the Browns welcome back Nick Chubb to the lineup. How much of a factor he’ll be is yet to be determined, but it can’t hurt to welcome him back against a Cincinnati defense that ranks 28th against the run this season. 

Backers have been burned twice this season with the Bengals laying a touchdown or more, yet they’re lining up to fade Cleveland in this spot. Take the home dog. 

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals 

The Arizona Cardinals were quietly an offseason darling as Kyler Murray was expected to be completely healthy and running a high-octane offense with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. 

Outside of a 41-point performance against the injury-depleted LA Rams in Week 2, that hasn’t been the case. Arizona has been hot and cold all year but it’s been mostly freezing for the Cardinals in recent weeks. The Cardinals rank 27th in total offense and don’t let a miraculous 24-23 win at San Francisco (fueled by a 61-yard blocked field goal return touchdown) cloud your opinion of the club.

Despite playing sub-par defenses like Washington and Green Bay, Arizona has scored 14 or fewer points in three of the last four and has been held under 21 offensive points in every contest this season (the Cardinals have two special teams touchdowns). They’ll face a Chargers’ defense Monday night that leads the league in scoring. 

The Chargers proved they could shine as a short road favorite last Sunday, when they handily defeated the Broncos in a game that was not as close as the final score (23-16) would indicate. The Chargers also let Justin Herbert loose with a season-high 34 passing attempts. That paid off as Herbert threw for 237 yards and put up a 74.7 QBR. However, Los Angeles wants to run the rock and that’s just fine for this matchup against an Arizona defense that ranks 29th against the run, giving up 153 yards per game. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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