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NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 8 (Target Miami, Chicago, New York)

Looking at the three best ATS picks to make in the NFL for Week 8.

By Shelby Dermer

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) celebrates his first touchdown pass to Miami Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker (11) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, November 1, 2020. (ALLEN EYESTONE / THE PALM BEACH POST)
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) celebrates his first touchdown pass to Miami Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker (11) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, November 1, 2020. (ALLEN EYESTONE / THE PALM BEACH POST) / Allen Eyestone / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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We’ve gone over the best prop bets to make in Week 8 and now we’ll head to the best spread picks to consider for this week’s NFL slate. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 8

  • Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals 
  • Chicago Bears (-3) at Washington Commanders 
  • New York Giants (+6) at Pittsburgh Steelers 

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals 

It’s the return of Tua Tagovailoa as the Alabama product looks to turn around the Dolphins’ season. Miami is a short home favorite in this matchup and it’s the perfect spot against an Arizona team that has been up-and-down through seven weeks. 

For starters, you have a short week for the Cardinals after pulling out a walk-off victory over the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football. It’s also an Arizona team that has not been able to sustain any momentum at all this season. The Cardinals are 0-2 ATS and straight up after a victory this season, getting blasted by the Packers (34-13) in Week 6 and losing at home to Detroit (20-13) in Week 3. 

Miami’s season-long metrics are going to be all out of whack after multiple games with a barrage of mediocre quarterbacks. Tagovailoa returns on Sunday and, on top of an overall morale boost in the locker room, he’ll face an Arizona defense that is 27th in overall defense and ranks 26th against the pass. 

With one of the league’s worst group of pass-catchers, Justin Herbert was still able to carve up this defense for 300-plus yards on Monday night and a pair of back-breaking miscues (a fumble after an interception and a fumble out of the endzone for a touchback) led to an Arizona victory. 

Miami’s offense will finally wake up from its month-long slumber on Sunday against an Arizona squad that is giving up 25.4 points per game, is coming off short rest and has to travel across the country and is dead last in the NFL in pass-rush win rate. 

Chicago Bears (-3) at Washington Commanders 

For starters, this line will be a steal if Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels (rib) can’t play on Sunday. Daniels missed the majority of Washington’s 40-7 thrashing of the lowly Panthers last week and did not practice on Wednesday. 

If he does suit up, he’ll be less than 100% against a surging, well-rested Chicago club off a bye week that has won three consecutive games by an average of 17 points per victory. Chicago would by far be the best defense Daniels has faced in the first half of his rookie season. The Bears have rushed the passer well (No. 2 in pass-rush win rate) and rank 11th against the run this season. 

We’re also starting to buy into the Bears’ offense anchored by No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. The Heisman Trophy winner was atrocious over his first couple appearances as the Bears got off to a 1-2 start, but he’s now thrown for 300-plus yards twice over the last month and has nine passing touchdowns against three interceptions over his last three games. 

The Commanders’ defense is necessarily a force to be reckoned with, either. Washington beat up on some putrid offenses (Carolina, Cleveland) over the last few weeks and if we’re buying low on Chicago’s offense, this is the perfect spot to do it. 

New York Giants (+6) at Pittsburgh Steelers 

Speaking of buy-low spots, you can’t get a better one than Daniel Jones and the Giants in primetime. Coming off a lopsided divisional loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Giants are a touchdown underdog on the road against Pittsburgh Monday night. 

Yes, Mike Tomlin’s voodoo continued last week when Pittsburgh, led by Russell Wilson making his team debut, pulled away from the New York Jets as a small home underdog. This is quite the adjustment, though, and Pittsburgh is now laying a big number in a game with the lowest point total (36) on the board. 

Tomlin has been great when his team’s back is against the wall, covering at an absurd 65.1% clip as an underdog. As a favorite that number drops to just 47.6% (89-98-2) and we’ve already seen the Giants win outright on the road as big underdogs twice this season (at Cleveland, at Seattle). 

One game against a depleted Jets’ defense isn’t enough to buy-in completely on Pittsburgh’s offense. The Giants’ defense held their own last Sunday for the majority of the afternoon, holding Philadelphia scoreless for the opening 21 minutes without any help from its offense. New York’s pass rush (No. 7 in win rate and No. 1 in sacks with 31) can turn this game into an ugly battle of attrition, making the six points even more valuable.  

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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