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Daily Dinger: Best Home Run Picks Today (Auto-Bet Paul Goldschmidt When Facing Lefties)

By Ben Heisler, Iain MacMillan, Peter Dewey, Reed Wallach

St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (46) is greeted by teammates after one of his 28 home runs in 2022.
St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (46) is greeted by teammates after one of his 28 home runs in 2022. / Joe Puetz-USA TODAY Sports
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After an recent slump, it's time to get back on the BetSided "Daily Dinger" bandwagon!

The team has hit on our top home run prop bet picks in four straight days, with Peter Dewey's selection of Ryan Mountcastle of the Baltimore Orioles the latest to deliver.

For Tuesday's MLB action, we're going back to the well in Cincinnati with another Philadelphia Phillies' bopper, a Chicago Cubs slugger in a favorable matchup against a bad team in Washington D.C., a Milwaukee Brewer at home in just the third game of the season where the L.A. Dodgers are an underdog, and St. Louis Cardinals slugger Paul Goldschmidt makes yet another appearance at home vs. the Colorado Rockies.

You can follow along in our team standings all season long HERE!

Best Home Run Picks Today

  • J.T. Realmuto (+400) - FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Patrick Wisdom (+250) – FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Paul Goldschmidt (+360) - Caesars / BetRivers
  • Rowdy Tellez (+450) - BetRivers/Unibet

J.T. Realmuto (+400) - Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds

Realmuto looks like he's about to get into one of his patented streaks where he starts crushing baseballs for a few days, and he's in the ideal spot to do it tonight in the bandbox at Cincinnati.

Via ESPN's MLB Park Factors, Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati gives up the second-most home runs per game in the Majors; trailing only Coors Field in Denver. The wind is also blowing out to right-center field at 8-10 mph which will only help someone like Realmuto who hits to all fields.

As for the Phillies' catcher, Realmuto has put up positive splits against right-handers this season, and can put up home runs in bunches when he's hot at the dish. From August 5-7, Realmuto hit bombs in three straight games against Washington in similar matchups and conditions.

Reds rookie right-hander T.J. Zeuch made his first MLB start back on August 10, and got shelacked by the New York Mets for six runs in four innings. I expect another rough outing tonight, likely aided by a Realmuto dinger at 4/1 odds.

Follow all of Ben’s betting plays in real-time HERE!

Patrick Wisdom (+240) – Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals

You know what time it is, we’re fading Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals!

Nobody has allowed more hits and more earned runs in MLB than Corbin this season, and he’s allowed 21 homers in 23 starts. 

Patrick Wisdom, the Chicago Cubs slugger, has 21 homers this season and is a far better hitter against lefties than he is against righties. This season, Wisdom is slashing .257/.359/.525 with seven homers in 101 at-bats against lefties. 

While he’s never faced Corbin in his career, this is a no-brainer for me with how bad the Nationals lefty has been.  – Peter Dewey

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

Paul Goldschmidt (+350) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies 

It’s honestly not fair when Goldy faces lefties, like he does on Tuesday against the Rockies Kyle Freeland. 

The NL MVP front runner is hitting a blistering .432 against southpaws in 99 at bats, hitting nine homers. That means nearly one of every 10 at bats against lefties, Goldschmidt is going yard. That justifies this number.  – Reed Wallach

Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!

Rowdy Tellez +400 - Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers

He already know how much better the Brewers are against right-handed pitchers, and that starts with first baseman Rowdy Tellez. He holds a .514 slugging percentage against righties, but just a .381 slugging percentage against lefties.

21 of his 24 home runs this season have come against right-handed pitchers, and I’ll bet on him hitting another off of one tonight when he and the Brew Crew take on MLB rookie, Ryan Pepiot.

Pepiot has got off to a solid start in his first five games of his MLB career, but he allowed two home runs and four total earned runs in his last start against the Twins. I’ll bet on Milwaukee to get to him tonight, and I think Rowdy Tellez will go yard. - Iain MacMillan

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Join the BetSided team every weekday at 5 p.m. ET for "Daily Betslip," as we cover our favorite betting plays of the night, including Tuesday's Astros-WhiteSox AL Cy Young showdown between Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease.

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