2022 NCAA Tournament Upsets: How Many Upsets By Seed in March Madness Hit Each Year?

Abilene Christian upset Texas as a 14 seed last season.
Abilene Christian upset Texas as a 14 seed last season. / Tim Nwachukwu/GettyImages

Every year, March Madness seems to deliver at least one Cinderella Team that makes an early upset and goes on a run. 

For bettors, finding who is going to make that upset can become very profitable, especially in the first round where they are more likely to occur. 

Usually, there will a few double-digit seeds that can win as major underdogs, but how often does each upset actually happen?

Here’s how often 11, 12, 13 and 14 seeds upset opponents in the NCAA Tournament

March Madness Upset History: How Often Does 12-Seed Upset 5-Seed?

Since the NCAA Tournament field expanded in 1985, there have been 51 upsets by 12-seeds. Heading into the 2022 NCAA Tournament, the 12-seed is 51-93 in this matchup, equating to a 35.42 win percentage. 

Last year, Oregon State was the only 12-seed to pull off an upset, but there were three 12 seeds that did so in the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Over the past 10 NCAA Tournaments, 12 seeds are a combined 16-24 against five seeds in the tourney. 

March Madness Upset History: How Often Does 11-Seed Upset 6-Seed?

While they may not be as lucrative as a 12-5 upset, 11-6 matchups are also a yearly occurrence in the NCAA Tournament. 

Since 1985, 54 11-seeded teams have upset a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. According to NCAA.com, it is about two percent more likely that an 11 seed gets an upset over a six than a 12 seed over a five. 

March Madness Upset History: How Often Does 13-Seed Upset 4-Seed?

The 13-4 matchup isn’t as common of an upset, as the 13 seed has gone just 31-113 in the NCAA Tournament against No. 4 seeds since 1985. That means they win 21.53 percent of the time. 

Last season, North Texas and Ohio pulled off upsets as 13 seeds, and there have been nine such upsets over the last 10 NCAA Tournaments. 

March Madness Upset History: How Often Does 14-Seed Upset 3-Seed?

Since 1985, 22 teams that were No. 14 seeds have upset a No. 3 seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They have a 22-122 record all time, which equals a win 15.3 percent of the time. 

Last season, Abilene Christian upset Texas, becoming the first 14 seed to win a first-round game since 2016. Over the last 10 tournaments, there have been six 14 seeds that have pulled off the upset. 

It’s important to keep these trends in mind when betting at WynnBET Sportsbook, but it’s also important to research matchups to make sure the team you are picking to upset is equipped to handle the higher seed.