March Madness Predictions: Using KenPom to Place Smart NCAA Tournament Bets

After the second to last week of the regular season saw the top six teams in the AP Poll go down, many are left wondering, who is truly the favorite in college basketball?

I'm here to tell you to not overreact to the results of this past weekend and allow advanced metrics to tell the season-long story, not just one week's worth of results.

There are several teams jockeying for position as we head into Conference Tournament play and the NCAA Men's Tournament, which we will separate into specific tiers that has been historically accurate in predicting the National Champion.

For a refresher on this exercise, I recommend you check out part one of this story from last week. Here is a snippet from there with the explanation as to what I'm doing and what this all means (as well as last week's data).

If you've read my college basketball work before, you know I reference KenPom in nearly every article. Ken Pomeroy has generated a way to use metrics that are incredibly predictive towards getting the final outcome of the game and the true difference between the 358 college basketball teams. It's incredibly insightful and has revolutionized how we view the game. You can look up more on him if you want and I suggest using his site when handicapping this, but enough gassing up KenPom, let's use his tools to craft a Champion.

I'm going to focus on two of the many metrics that are available, adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency, to help narrow the field of our Champion.

Dating back to 2002, all but two teams have been inside the top 20 on both sides of the ball. Those two teams are the 2014 Connecticut Huskies, led by Shabazz Napier, and the 2021 Baylor Bears.

The odds used below are from WynnBET Sportsbook and the data includes KenPom's ratings before Monday's games and seeds are derived from Bracket Matrix.

National Championship Contenders

Nothing major changed from last week, except that Kentucky rejoins the group after just missing last week. While Houston and UCLA appear to be dangerous come Tournament time despite being a lower seed, the more fascinating discussion is around Baylor.

The defending National Champs are now No. 3 in KenPom's rating. The team is still waiting to get LJ Cryer back from injury, but the team has navigated through a ton of ailments to the likes of James Akinjo, Adam Flgler, among others, during Big 12 play yet are still in the mix for a regular season title.

NCAA Tournament Dark Horses

Duke is the first team out per say of the 20/20 group, but I'm still not sold on the Blue Devils, who are playing in the worst power conference this season, the ACC. The Blue Devils have a ton of size, but have been rarely challenged in conference play, and have been victim to some concerning second half efforts.

Meanwhile, I was expecting to see Connecticut take a bigger jump and push towards the higher tier after a home win over Villanova, but the team still profiles as just a cut below those teams for now.

Then there's a group of four teams that are intriguing for different reasons: Kansas, Villanova, Tennessee and Texas; the prior two are elite on offense but have some concerns on defense while the latter are each fantastic defense clubs but may not have enough offensive firepower to make a run in the Tournament.

High Variance Teams that Can Be Early Exits from NCAA Tournament

Again, these are teams that are top 20 on one side of the ball and outside the top 50 on the other. I'll hit on two teams in this weeks section.

St. Mary's is off a monumental win over Gonzaga which sent the Gaels soaring up the KenPom board, now inside the top 10 on the defensive side of the ball. The team was already tourney bound, but now are a firm lock. I'm curious how the bracket breaks for St. Mary's given their methodical pace and pack line defense, they present a unique test for some clubs. If the matchups go their way this team can make a run behind their strong defense and efficient offense that may be a bit underrated given their conference.

The other team I'll hit on is Arkansas, who I think will be in the 'Almost Famous' group next time around. The Hogs have won 13 of 14 SEC games and have one of the best guards in the country in JD Notae, who scored 30 on Kentucky in a win on Saturday. The team still struggles to shoot from three, but they aren't overly reliant on it, bottom 100 in three-point rate.

Also, this team has all of the momentum, inside Bart Torvik's top 10 power rating since the beginning of February. Keep buying stock in the Razorbacks as we get into the SEC Tournament. The team has dynamic guard play, a deep rotation and the size down low to make a run.

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!