2023 Heisman Trophy Odds: Michigan Quarterback J.J. McCarthy Leaps to Favorite after Michael Penix Jr. Clunker
By Reed Wallach
Following the conclusion of Michigan's dismantling of rival Michigan State in Week 8 action, J.J. McCarthy continued to hang on the outskirts of the Heisman Trophy conversation as his stats have been supressed due to the team's domination.
However, as Michigan's game ended on Saturday night, Washington's near loss against Arizona State began. The odds on favorite to win the Heisman, Michael Penix Jr., failed to lead the vaunted Huskies offense to a touchdown for the entire game.
As the dust has settled from Week 8, the Heisman Trophy conversation has shifted from Penix Jr. to McCarthy and his devastatingly efficient play this season for the best team in the country.
Why has McCarthy not been the favorite?
He's the quarterback of the best team. Well, he pales in comparison to the likes of Penix Jr., or LSU's Jayden Daniels when it comes to passing yards. The Michigan quarterback is 33rd with 1,799 yards while Penix Jr. is first with 2,576 and Daniels is second with 2,573.
Daniels has combined for 30 touchdowns as he has the most stat driven case, while Penix has the signature win to date of Oregon.
However, Daniels has suffered two losses already, and LSU's defense continues to be a concern in terms of holding back the team as a whole, and, in turn his case for Heisman.
Meanwhile, Washington's schedule is only going to get harder after the team needed a pick-six in the fourth quarter to beat a one win Arizona State team.
The team plays two ranked teams in Utah and Oregon State in November as well as at the reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams of USC and rival Washington State in the Apple Cup.
That leaves us with McCarthy, who has completed nearly 80% of his passes with 21 total touchdowns. While his numbers aren't overwhelming like Daniels, some of that is due to the fact that he has thrown four fourth quarter passes this season.
Michigan has won its four Big Ten games by a score of 198-24. From a Heisman Trophy perspective, he is laying the groundwork now to run away with the race later.
The Wolverines travel to Happy Valley in two weeks to play Penn State, a team that showed it may not be at the caliber to knock off the College Football Playoff stalwarts like Michigan and Ohio State, but is arguably a top 10 team in the country.
A win there will likely shift McCarthy to the odds on favorite, similar to how Penix Jr. became a massive chalk following the Oregon win. The betting market likes to react to what it sees, just like this weekend shifted on the near-loss for Washington.
Of course, other quarterbacks will keep pace statistically. I'm sure voters will discuss the Michigan sign stealing scandal as a knock on him as well. However, if the Wolverines run the table in the regular season, capped by a win at home against rival (and likely undefeated) Ohio State, the case will be made as one of the most comprehensive and efficient seasons in college football.
McCarthy, as noted last week, has the inside track to New York and the stage to lift the Heisman Trophy. It just took a little longer for the betting market to realize.
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2023 Heisman Trophy Odds
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