2023 SEC Betting Preview: Can LSU Win Double Digit Games in 2023?

The SEC West is going to be intriguing in 2023.

After LSU came on strong late in 2023 to win the division, the team enters this season as a more known quantity in the second year under Brian Kelly. I wrote about the high ceiling of Texas A&M in our SEC Betting Preview, but the Tigers are the most proven team in the SEC West heading into the season.

Over in the SEC East, Mississippi State is going through wholesale changes under first year head coach Zach Arnett. With a win total of 6.5, is the market giving this team too much credit despite transitioning offensive schemes?

Here's a win total over and under I'm playing in the SEC.

LSU OVER 9.5 Wins (-130)

LSU won nine regular season games in 2023 despite battling wholesale changes on the coaching staff and all over the roster.

The team wasn't great on either side of the trenches and lacked explosive plays on offense.

However, the team picked up as the season went on, winning in different ways, like 45-20 at home against then undefeated Ole Miss and at Arkansas 13-10. Jayden Daniels ended up registering a strong season as a veteran quarterback, anchoring a unit that was top 10 in success rate and Harold Perkins Jr, emerged as a star linebacker, registering 7.5 sacks.

The team is top 20 in returning production, per ESPN.com, and should take a big step forward on the offensive line after allowing the fifth most sacks in the country last season. The team started two true freshmen at each tackle spot, but now have a total of four returning starters. The unit should take a step forward.

With more time, the dual threat Daniels can find the likes of second-team All-SEC receiver Malik Nabers and sophomore tight end Mason Taylor more easily. The Tigers were an elite rushing team despite Daniels leading the team on the ground with nearly 900 yards. The Tigers landed Logan Diggs in the transfer portal from Notre Dame to join returning starters Josh Williams and Noah Cain.

On defense, the Tigers should be stout again around Perkins and the return of Maason Smith, who suffered a season ending injury in the team's opening game last season. The secondary includes five transfer cornerbacks from the FCS level to Texas A&M (Denver Harris) and Ohio State (JK Johnson).

Kelly has a full offseason with continuity on hand in addition to more transfer portal talent. While there may be some growing pains, this team is likely going to be in the mix for an SEC Championship Game.

The team will be favored in 11 of 12 games this season with the exception being at Alabama, but the Tigers get a bye before that matchup. The other three close games include Florida State in Week 1 on a neutral field, the Tigers are currently a three-point favorite, at Ole Miss and Texas A&M, where the team will be favored by likely less than a touchdown in both.

LSU will be a double digit favorite in the remaining 8 games, meaning the team will need to go 2-2 in the "toss-up" matchups to get over the total, as long as the Bayou Bengals hold serve. It's worth noting that if Daniels were to get banged up, the team has veteran backup Garrett Nussmeier. I don't see a big drop off there.

I feel confident the Tigers win double digit games.

Mississippi State UNDER 6.5 Wins (-175)

Arnett takes over for the late Mike Leach, who tragically passed away this past winter. Unfortunately, we must go on and talk about the Bulldogs on the field, who are going to look different than prior iterations.

While the team returns a ton of key contributors, top 50 in returning production the team is going to transition to a new offensive scheme and away from its 'air raid.'

Veteran signal caller Will Rogers was recruited to run this offense and after starting for several years, I believe there can be some growing pains for the roster. The team hired former Appalachian State head coach Kevin Barbay to run the offense. While the Mountaineers were a potent offense last season, the team ran the ball on 56% of plays. For reference, the Bulldogs had the lowest rush rate in the country last season.

With some changes coming schematically, could it take some time for the roster to adjust?

The defense was rock solid last season, top 30 in EPA/Play, but are bottom half in returning production and lose two top pass rushers in Cameron young and Randy Charlton. While the team gets back two 100 tackle linebackers in Nathaniel Watson and Jett Johnson, the team is gutted in the secondary, losing first round NFL Draft pick Emmanuel Forbes.

The team will be favored by double digits in all four non conference games (but don't sleep on Arizona's offense in Week 2), but I struggle to trust this team to win three SEC games.

The team will be considerable underdogs at home against LSU, Alabama, at Texas A&M. Miss. State will also be considerable underdogs at Arkansas and home for Kentucky. The team will host the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss, but two games that would have the Bulldogs favored at home come on the road, including at South Carolina and at Auburn.

I'm not sure I can trust this team to get to seven wins. Six wins comes up way more than seven, and with a regime change I believe the team should be satisfied getting to a bowl.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.