2024 Arizona Diamondbacks Season Preview, Win Total, Playoff Odds and Prediction

Are the defending National League Champions being undervalued by the oddsmakers?

World Series - Texas Rangers v Arizona Diamondbacks - Game Five
World Series - Texas Rangers v Arizona Diamondbacks - Game Five / Harry How/GettyImages
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With just under a month until Opening Day in Major League Baseball we are entering the period where we begin discussing which teams will be contending for playoff positions and a World Series title.

We also are having the discussions about which team is going to surprise the casual fan and outperform the preseason expectations set by the odds makers and “experts” in and around baseball.

Last season that team was the Arizona Diamondbacks, a franchise that hadn’t sniffed the postseason since 2017 and looked to be going no where near the playoffs, burst onto the scene thanks in large part to eventual rookie of the year Corbin Carroll and found their way into the playoffs.

The D-Backs proceeded to sweep both the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers, and then defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in a Game 7 in Philadelphia and earned themselves an National League title and a spot in the World Series.

I am here to share that this season’s D-Backs are the undervalued team that fans and bettors need to keep their eyes on.

You might be asking yourself, how can a team that just won the National League be undervalued? My answer is compare the odds set for them against the moves the team made in the offseason.

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Diamondbacks Win Total Odds and Prediction

Currently on FanDuel the D-Backs win total is currently set at 83.5 and their odds to simply make the playoffs are +106, and in my opinion those odds are incredibly disrespectful to a team as talented as the D-Backs.

The D-Backs are returning every major piece of their lineup from last season, which includes All-Stars Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Zac Gallen.

It is not worth forgetting that they also have returning Gold Glove winners Christian Walker at first base and catcher Gabriel Moreno still in the lineup, as well as NLCS MVP Ketel Marte at second base. Oh, one more thing, the number two starter on the roster Merrill Kelly, who was nothing short of spectacular in the postseason, he’s still in Arizona also.

The D-Backs didn’t simply think they could run it back in 2024 which is why they went out and made several moves in free agency, and by moves, I mean they arguably “won” the offseason.

A big problem for the D-Backs in 2023 was the lack of depth in the rotation behind Gallen and Kelly, which is why Arizona went out and signed Eduardo Rodriguez who is coming off of a season in Detroit where he had a career best ERA of 3.30 and a career low WHIP of 1.153.

The team also added some much needed power to its lineup with the acquisitions of Joc Pederson, Eugenio Suarez, and one of baseball’s best-kept secrets Randal Grichuk, with Grichuk also providing additional depth in the outfield.

One last note about the D-Backs offseason moves, they re-signed last season’s trade deadline acquisition Paul Sewald to remain the team’s closer this season.

Now, what will make or break the Diamondbacks season and their postseason chances will be their performance against their division foes. Last season, Arizona had winning records against three of its division opponents, with the one exception being the Dodgers.

Now, I will say that a vulnerable Dodgers rotation should provide more opportunities for the D-Backs to pick up a few more wins this season against their rivals from Los Angeles, but the success against the other opponents should stay intact -- if not improve.

The San Diego Padres lost Josh Hader, Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Gary Sanchez and Juan Soto in the offseason while the San Francisco Giants lost three pieces of their starting rotation to free agency and will be without starters Alex Cobb and newly acquired Robbie Ray until at least the All-Star break as they both rehab following surgeries.

What about the Colorado Rockies? Well, while we can discuss that situation another time, just know that Arizona went 10-3 against Colorado last season and that dominance should continue.

Taking all of this into account, I am absolutely in love with the Diamondbacks in 2024. I am personally on the over on the win total of 83.5 and in an era where six teams make the playoffs in each league, I am also on the D-Backs to make the playoffs at +106.


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.