2024 US Open Nationality Prop Best Bets

It is US Open week. All of the best golfers in the world are at Pinehurst No.2 this week for the third major championship of the year. Scottie Scheffler will enter the event as the biggest favorite in a major championship since Tiger Woods in 2009. Coming off of his fifth win in his last eight tries, Scottie may have the chance to run away with this one, with Pinehurst being one of the most challenging courses played on tour.

If you are looking for more insights about the course, outright bets, or placement bets, I invite you to delve into my comprehensive preview of this event. Now that we've discussed the venue and my top picks for the weekend, let's expand our horizons by examining some nationality props for this weekend's event.

All odds listed are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Top Debutant - Ludvig Aberg (+170)

This one is not a nationality prop per se, but this group that Aberg should dominate, considering the next best option is Nicolai Hajgaard at +1000. Don't get me wrong, this is a big group of 32 total golfers, mainly made up of struggling tour pros and amateurs who made it through qualifying. None of these guys' games stacks up to Aberg's consistency.

Over the last three months, Aberg has ranked No.2 in the field in strokes gained on approach. In addition, he ranks No.7 in strokes gained by putting on fast Bermuda grass greens and ranking No.7 in bogey avoidance over the last year. Aberg is coming off a top-five finish at the complex Muirfield Village and has three top-10 finishes in his previous four starts on Tour. Now, at the most challenging course played on Tour, I see Aberg having a massive advantage in this group by being the most consistent ball striker by far.

Top Japanese Finisher - Hideki Matsuyama (-105)

Matsuyama has been on fire recently. He is coming off a T8 finish at the Memorial Tournament last weekend, gaining strokes in every aspect of the game. Returning to the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Matsuyama has seven straight top 40 finishes, four top 10 finishes, and one event win at the Genesis Invitational. In this group with Matsuyama are five Japanese golfers that either play on the Japanese or European Tour.

Between all five players, you can count the number of PGA events these guys have played in 2024 on the hand, and none have a game that is anywhere near as well-rounded as Matsuyama. Matsuyama is entering this event, ranking No.2 in strokes gained tee-to-green in difficult scoring conditions and ranking No.3 in total strokes gained in solid fields over the last year. Given Matsuyama's recent form, I am confident he will win this group.  

Top Spanish Finisher - Jon Rahm (-115)

This play may not even get off the ground as Rahm's health is in question going into the U.S. Open this weekend at Pinehurst. Rahm was forced to withdraw from LIV Golf's most recent event in Houston due to an infection in his foot. However, Rahm has the most complete game in this group. Rahm ranks No.5 in the field in total strokes gained in major championships over the last five years and ranks No.8 in strokes gained tee-to-green in very strong fields over the previous year.

Rahm's biggest competition in this group will be Sergio Garcia, but Garcia only has one top-10 finish in his last three starts on the LIV Tour and has missed the cut in four of his previous six trips to a major championship. If Rahm can get the infection out of his foot before this event, he has a great chance to be the top Spanish golfer this weekend.

Top South African - Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+180)

Switching up the theme here, in every other group I have talked about, I have taken a relatively large favorite. In this group, Bezuidenhout is not the favorite but has the second-best odds of finishing as the top South African. The leader in this group is Dean Burmester, who has played relatively well on the LIV tour this year, but his game doesn't set up well for this course.

Burmester struggles with accuracy off the tee, and considering there is no rough on this course, just sandy waste areas with thick natural vegetation, I could see Burmester getting himself in some trouble this weekend. The other two players in this group are Erik van Rooyen, who has struggled in major championships over the last three years, and Casey Jarvis, who has struggled on the Europen Tour this season and will be playing in his first major championship.

Bezuidenhout has been exceptionally consistent recently; he has four top-20 finishes in his last five events and ranks No.15 in this field in bogey avoidance and three-putt avoidance on courses with difficult scoring conditions. I like Bezuidenhout to come out on top of this group on a course that demands ball-striking precision.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.