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3 Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Kings vs. Heat (Fade Davion Mitchell's Assist Prop in Miami)

By Ben Heisler

Sacramento Kings guard Davion Mitchell will have his hands full against a Miami Heat team that needs to get back on track in the Eastern Conference.
Sacramento Kings guard Davion Mitchell will have his hands full against a Miami Heat team that needs to get back on track in the Eastern Conference. / Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
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The Miami Heat are slumping badly and need a win at home in the most desperate way when they take on the Sacramento Kings at FTX Arena in Miami this evening.

Our Joe Summers has you ready on how he's betting tonight's game from a side and total perspective, but what about in the props market?

Here are the latest prop odds for tonight's matchup in Miami via WynnBET Sportsbook, as well as three plays I'll be looking to key in on.

3 Best Prop Bets for Kings vs. Heat

  • Davion Mitchell UNDER 6.5 Assists (-135)
  • Damian Jones OVER 15.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
  • Trey Lyles OVER 12.5 PTS (-105)

Davion Mitchell UNDER 6.5 Assists (-135)

-135 odds is a substantial price to pay, but the sharps are not buying on Mitchell's recent run of success as a facilitator in the Kings' offense. Granted, he's exceeded the number in three straight games, but two of which game against two other bottom feeders in Orlando and Indiana. He's also played a TON of minutes, going over 45 and 46 in two of his last three. Facing a defense like the Heat's could show some wear; especially in the second half.

Miami, despite their inconsistencies remain a very good defensive team, ranking top 5 in Defensive Rating this season. I expect Mitchell to be called upon more to score tonight rather than to distribute.

Damian Jones OVER 15.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)

Jones has maximized his efficiency over his last three games, getting into double figures in all three matchups, and raising his usage rate to over 21% in two of the three. All three games have been close games decided by four or less points for the Kings, so Sacramento has made it a point to get him consistent minutes

Jones has also hit this number in three straight games. If you're asking yourself, "how is this different from Mitchell, who has also hit in three straight?" It's a fair question. The difference is Mitchell's minutes have gone far beyond his traditional limits, and will have to deal with a very imposing Miami backcourt.

Granted, Bam Adebayo is the favorite for NBA Defensive Player of the Year, but Jones has still found a way to be extremely efficient at the rim and can also make threes.

Trey Lyles OVER 12.5 PTS (-105)

Lyles snagged 18 rebounds in the Kings' 114-110 win over the Magic on Saturday while also scoring 11 points for the third consecutive game. While he's missed the prop number over those three games, he's been a key factor on the court, playing 32:55 and 36:11 in the games vs. Phoenix and Orlando.

The outlier in that bunch was the 22 minutes vs. the Pacers, but he was even more efficient in that game with his 11 points scored and a usage rate of over 20%.

Lyles is right on the doorstop of delivering on this prop, and with solid -105 odds, the matchup vs. the Heat set up well for him to get there.

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE

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