3 NFL Teams With Betting Value in Latest Playoff Odds
Searching for value in NFL playoff odds this late in the season can be challenging. Sportsbooks aren't in the habit of making it easy for bettors, and the tight nature of the NFL market makes it even more dicey.
But there are still teams out there that offer value - depending on your definition - as we head into Week 13 of the NFL season.
Here are three of my favorites at FanDuel.
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Green Bay Packers (5-6 -- No. 8 in NFC)
Many would argue that betting a team to make the playoffs at -110 odds at this point of the season doesn't offer much, if any, value.
In theory, I agree with that sentiment and truth be told you could be better off waiting until after this week's game against the Kansas City Chiefs in Green Bay to get better odds, but you also risk Green Bay winning over a very beatable Kansas City team and these odds shifting against you.
After the Chiefs, the Pack travel to the New York Giants, host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, play at Carolina and Minnesota before finishing the season hosting the Chicago Bears.
A win this week and any value on the Packers is gone with a very real chance of winning each their last five games.
Denver Broncos (6-5 -- No. 9 in AFC)
Nobody's come further this season than the Denver Broncos who started the season 1-5 before reeling off five straight wins.
Please, raise your hand if you had predicted that the Broncos-Houston Texans game in early December would have serious playoff implications. I certainly didn't expect that.
The Texans currently have the tie break on Denver, but that changes with a Denver win on Sunday as head-to-head will take precedence.
In essence, if you think Denver beats Houston you're getting an eighth place teams playoff odds for the price of the ninth-place team. The two teams have identical records, but one (Houston) is -104 and the other (Denver) +146.
I'm not here to tell you it's going to be easy, as Denver's DVOA numbers on defense are at the bottom of the league, but they have certainly improved during the winning streak.
Even if Denver fails to beat the Texans Sunday, the remaining schedule sets up nicely with two games against the Los Angeles Chargers, a trip to Detroit, hosting the pathetic New England Patriots and a Week 18 trip to Vegas and the likely checked-out Las Vegas Raiders.
Buffalo Bills (6-6 -- No. 10 in AFC)
There's a fine line between value and a long shot, and apparently that's the line between the No. 9 team in the AFC (Denver) and the No. 10 Buffalo Bills, with the odds more than doubling.
It's been a weird year in Buffalo as the Bills have played incredibly well for stretches, yet fumbled and bumbled their way to a 6-6 record. Yes, a team that's fifth in total DVOA is .500.
There's also fact that after a week off this Sunday the Bills have to travel to Kansas City and then host Dallas, potentially digging the team into a deeper hole.
That said, the Dallas Cowboys are a different team on the road and if the Bills can split those two, next up would be the Chargers (away) and Patriots (home), setting up a season finale against a Miami Dolphins team (away) that could be resting it's stars.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.