58 Best Super Bowl 58 Bets to Make for 49ers vs. Chiefs
Let's be honest, we're all going to bet on the upcoming Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. The question isn't "if" the question is "how much".
If you're like me, you're going to (responsibly) place more bets than you probably should. If you're like me and you go for quantity over quality when it comes to betting on the big game, you've come to the right place.
In this article, I'm going to give you 58 (that's right, 58) bets to place for Super Bowl 58. I wouldn't recommend betting one every single one, but pick a few out that you like and go for it. If you want more in-depth analysis on a few quality picks, you'll find those in other articles on BetSided. In this article, we're going rapid fire.
If you're looking for a place to put down some bets, be sure to sign up for an account at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you click the link below to sign up for an account, you'll receive $200 in bonus bets when you place your first $5 wager.
58 Best Bets for Super Bowl 58
1) 49ers -1
Obviously, I'm going to start with my pick for the game. You can read my full betting preview here. At the end of the day, the 49ers are the more talented team with more weapons, sporting unarguably the best offense in the NFL. Betting against may seem insane, but it's so crazy that it might just work.
2) UNDER 47.5
The Chiefs and the 49ers had two of the top three scoring defenses in the NFL, giving up 16.8 and 18.4 points per game, respectively. The Chiefs also hit the UNDER at the second highest rate in the NFL this season at 14-6 (70%). This total is a couple of points too high, in my opinion.
3) Christian McCaffrey OVER 89.5 rushing yards
The 49ers path to winning this game is running the football against a Chiefs team that ranks 28th in opponent rush EPA and 25th in opponent yards per carry, giving up 4.5 yards per rush. McCaffrey has to have a big game for San Francisco to win this game.
4) Brock Purdy UNDER 245.5 passing yards
Paired along with McCaffrey's rushing yards OVER, we're going to take the UNDER on Brock Purdy's passing yards. The Chiefs give up just 5.4 yards per pass attempt and 181.5 passing yards per game.
5) Deebo Samuel 1st TD scorer (+1000)
The great thing about betting on Deebo Samuel to score a touchdown, the first of the game or any time, is that he can do it on the ground or through the air. Outside of McCaffrey, he's the biggest game changer for San Francisco so I'll dabble on him scoring first at 10/1.
6) Travis Kelce OVER 6.5 receptions (-150)
Travis Kelce has hauled in at least seven receptions in two of the three playoff games this season including racking up 11 catches for 116 yards last week against the Ravens. Patrick Mahomes is going to rely on his favorite target in the biggest game.
7) Chiefs TD on first drive (+235)
The Chiefs scripted plays in the postseason have been fantastic and now they take on a 49ers defense that struggles in that area. Kansas City might come out hot on their opening drive.
8) 49ers TD on first drive (+200)
The 49ers averaged 6.1 points per 1st quarter this season and they lead the NFL in both third down offense and red zone offense. If one of the two teams score a touchdown on their first drive, we're profitable. If they both do, we're laughing.
9) 2nd half total UNDER 23.5
The 2nd half UNDER is 18-2 in Chiefs' games this season and they've allowed just three total 4th quarter points during this playoff run. Enough said.
10) Christian McCaffrey 2+ touchdowns (+225)
Christian McCaffrey has scored 2+ touchdowns in seven games this season including each of the 49ers' two playoff games. If anyone's going to find the end zone twice, it's going to be CMC.
11) Chiefs 1st half moneyline (+102)
The Chiefs score an average of 6.9 more points in the first half compared to the second half and the 49ers have started slow in each of their two playoff games. Despite the fact I like the 49ers to win the game, I think the Chiefs will hold the halftime lead.
12) Chiefs to make 1st field goal of game (-104)
The Chiefs are averaging 2.0 field goals per game, largely due to having trouble in the red zone, converting just 52.7% of red zone trips into touchdowns. Meanwhile, the 49ers make just 1.3 field goals per game. There's value on this play.
13) Both teams to record a sack NO (+350)
The Chiefs and 49ers have two of the best offensive lines in the NFL, ranking second and sixth in sacks allowed per game. I'm going to take a shot on one of the two teams not allowing a sack in the Super Bowl.
14) Brandon Aiyuk OVER 64.5 receiving yards
I'm a big Brandon Aiyuk fan and I think he has a chance to be one of the most productive players in this game if the 49ers can get their passing game going. He averaged 83.9 receiving yards per game this season so if he even sniffs his season average, he's going to soar over this total.
15) Harrison Butker OVER 7.5 points (-102)
For the same reason I stated above, I'm going to double dip on a Chiefs kicking prop and take the over on Butler's kicking points total. They're averaging 2.0 field goals a game so if the Chiefs just hit their season average for field goals and add on two extra points, this bet hits.
16) Nick Bolton OVER 9.5 tackles
Nick Bolton is leading the NFL playoffs with 27 tackles, the next closest has 23. He has gone over 9.5 tackles in three of the Chiefs' four games so far this postseason.
17) Fred Warner OVER 8.5 tackles
Fred Warner is averaging 10 tackles per game in the playoffs and he's going to have to be on his "A" game to slow down this Chiefs offense. He'll be flying all over the field on Super Bowl Sunday.
18) Dre Greenlaw UNDER 8.5 tackles
Dre Greenlaw averaged 8 tackles per game this season and 7.5 tackles per game in the playoffs, failing to hit nine tackles in either of the 49ers two postseason games.
19) Isiah Pacheco OVER 16.5 rush attempts
Isiah Pacheco has played at least 70% of snaps in the Chiefs' three playoff games and rushed 24 times in two of them. The only game he didn't rush at least 17 times, he ran the ball 15 times against the Bills. The Chiefs have shown their committed to their run game in the playoffs and Pacheco is their clear No. 1 back.
20) Patrick Mahomes longest rush OVER 12.5 yards
Mahomes has recorded a run of at least 13 yards in 11 of the Chiefs 20 games this season, including a run of 24 yards and 28 yards in two of their three postseason wins. We're not asking a lot of him to scamper once for at least 13 yards.
21) Brock Purdy OVER 11.5 rushing yards
Brock Purdy may have discovered his inner scrambler these playoffs. He ran for 14 yards against the Packers and then ran for 48 yards against the Lions last week. If that trend continues, he may take off with his legs a few times and hit the OVER on this number.
22) George Kittle anytime TD (+185)
George Kittle hauled in six receiving touchdowns in the regular season and then added one in the postseason against the Packers. In a battle between two of the best tight ends in the NFL, I'll back both to find the end zone.
23) Travis Kelce anytime TD (+105)
As I just wrote above, I'm going to bet on both tight ends to score a touchdown on Super Bowl Sunday. Mahomes will be looking for Kelce early and often in this game. He has scored in two of his three Super Bowl appearances.
24) Marquez Valdes-Scantling anytime TD (+600)
MVS hauling in the game-sealing touchdown against the Ravens may have given him a boost of confidence ahead of the Super Bowl. He's still the Chiefs' top deep threat so if they score on an explosive play, there's a good chance Valdes-Scantling will be on the receiving end of it.
25) Patrick Mahomes anytime TD (+390)
Patrick Mahomes has scored a touchdown in five of his 17 playoff games, which is a touchdown rate of 29.4%. Considering +390 odds has an implied probability of 20.41%, there's some great value on this bet.
26) 1st quarter correct score: 49ers 7 - Chiefs 7 (+1000)
We're at the point of the article where I'm going to give out my guess for the correct score of each quarter. I'm starting to scramble for more bets and we're not even halfway there, oh boy.
Both teams typically are strong out of the gate, specifically the Chiefs. I'll throw a dart on it being a 7-7 tie after the 1st quarter.
27) 1st half correct score: 49ers 14 - Chiefs 17 (+6000)
As I stated in pick No. 11, the Chiefs have been significantly better in the first half of games this season, especially offensively. I think they'll have a slight lead at the end of the first half and lead the 49ers by a field goal.
28) Exact final score: 49ers 24 - Chiefs 20 (+11000)
As I've stated, I think the 49ers win this game, and the total of 47.5 stays UNDER, so i think a final score of 24-20 makes a lot of sense. If this ends up being the final score, I should be hailed as a Super Bowl prophet.
29) Christian McCaffrey OVER 3.5 yards on first rush attempt (-102)
We're keeping this one simple. The Chiefs give up 4.5 yards per carry and we're getting almost even money on CMC's first carry being at least 4 yards. Done.
30) Nick Bosa to NOT record a sack (-113)
The Chiefs gave up only 1.5 sacks per game this season, the second fewest in the NFL. Considering Nick Bosa only had 10.5 sacks in 17 games in the regular season, I think there's a ton of value on this prop bet.
31) Fred Warner to record most tackles and assists in game (+320)
Refer to pick No. 17. I think Fred Warner's going to be flying all over the field on Super Bowl Sunday and he's already averaging 10 combined tackles per game.
32) Marquez Valdes-Scantling first reception OVER 12.5 yards (-125)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the Chiefs' deep threat receiver and is average 15.0 yards per reception this season so there's a good enough chance that his first catch will be a long one.
33) Deebo Samuel to record a pass attempt (+1000)
Offensive coordinators pull out all the stop in the Super Bowl, digging deep in their playbook and more often than not we see at least one trick play. Deebo Samuel already has a pass attempt on the year so I wouldn't be surprised if we see him attempt a second one in this game. It's worth a sprinkle at +1000.
34) Brock Purdy longest pass UNDER 37.5 yards
The Chiefs and 49ers rank second and third in the NFL in opponent yards per completion at 8.9 and 9.0 yards respectively. It's going to be hard for either quarterback to complete many, if any, long bombs so I'm going to take the UNDER longest pass for both teams.
35) Patrick Mahomes Longest pass UNDER 36.5 yards
Refer to the pick above. These secondaries play too good over the top for me to want to take the OVER on the longest pass for both quarterbacks.
36) Noah Gray OVER 1.5 receptions (-130)
If the 49ers focus their attention on stopping Travis Kelce at all costs, it's going to open things up for Noah Gray. He hauled in two receptions on five targets last week and three receptions the week before. All we need is or him to record two to cash this prop.
37) Brock Purdy first completion UNDER 10.5 yards (-122)
Despite his amazing season, Brock Purdy is a second-year quarterback about to play in the biggest game of his life. Kyle Shanahan would be smart to ease him into the game with a couple of short passes to start the game, potentially a screen pass to McCaffrey. We'll see him take some shots later in the game, but I expect his first pass to be a short one. I'll take the UNDER 10.5 yards on his first completion
38) Travis Kelce to record 25+ receiving yards in each half (+115)
FanDuel is offering some special bets for the Super Bowl and one of them is Travis Kelce to record at least 25 receiving yards in both halves. We know he's going to be the primary target for Mahomes and I don't think he's going to be completely shut down in either half.
39) McCaffrey and Pacheco to combine for 150+ rushing yards (-200)
Another FanDuel special. Yes, -200 odds is a lot of juice, but that doesn't mean there's not plenty of value on this bet. The run defense is the weakness for both teams so I expect both running backs to have big games. One player may get close to 150 rushing yards alone, so i think this is going to be an easy winner.
40) Patrick Mahomes exactly 2 passing touchdowns (+185)
Mahomes is going to get his stats and his touchdown throws, but with the 49ers' weakness being their run defense, I expect the Chiefs to find some success on the ground. So, I'm going to be on Mahomes to finish with exactly two passing touchdowns.
41) Brock Purdy exactly 1 passing touchdown (+170)
Even moreso than the Chiefs, the 49ers need to rely on their run game as much as possible. Christian McCaffrey is going to win this game for the 49ers, not Brock Purdy. He'll record one touchdown through the air.
42) Isiah Pacheco OVER 67.5 rushing yards
Joe Summers is going to sub in for a few picks, starting with a couple of plays on Pacheco. You didn't expect me to write all 58 bets myself, did you?
"Pacheco cleared this number in four straight games, averaging 93.5 per game in that stretch. Against a 49ers defense that just allowed 6.3 yards per carry to the Lions, expect the Chiefs to feed Pacheco to control the clock and get over this prop."
43) Isiah Pacheco last TD (+600)
Another Joe Summers pick:
"When the Chiefs hope to put games away, they heavily rely on Pacheco late. He's scored the last TD in all three playoff games for Kansas City, and scored the Chiefs' last TD in Week 17 against the Bengals as well. Instead of paying the juice for an Anytime TD, betting Pacheco to score the last one is a creative way to get some extra value."
44) Travis Kelce OVER 70.5 receiving yards
One last pick from our resident Chiefs fan, Joe Summers:
"Kelce has at least 71 receiving yards in 12 consecutive playoff games. Coming off a legendary game against the Ravens, I trust Mahomes to continue to rely on his favorite target."
45) 1st offensive play of the game: Rush (-150)
The Super Bowl is a massive game and it makes too much sense to me to run the football on the opening play, especially with the running game being key for both teams. At -150, this should be a solid winner to start the game off.
46) Will the opening kickoff be a touchback? No (+265)
We're going to take a chance with the opening kickoff not being a touchback at +265. If the 49ers end up kicking off to start the game, this is going to be a great bet. Only 62.39% of their kickoffs this season resulted in a touchdown, which ranks 25th in the NFL. If the Chiefs kickoff, we could be in trouble as 83.33% of their kicks result in a touchback.
47) Patrick Mahomes most passing yards (-160)
This one's simple. We're betting on Mahomes to finish with more passing yards than Purdy. The 49ers should rely on running the football more than the Chiefs and Purdy may struggle throwing against this Chiefs secondary.
48) Christian McCaffrey most rushing yards (-210)
If you're okay with laying -210 juice, this is a solid bet. As I keep on saying, the 49ers should rely on the run early and often in this game and McCaffrey may take over this game for their offense. Pacheco is the top back for the Chiefs, but they don't run the ball as often or as effectively as San Francisco does.
49) Rashee Rice most receiving yards +290
Travis Kelce may rack up the receptions, but Rashee Rice is going to eat up yards. I think you have to take a Chief to lead the game in receiving yards with the 49ers likely sticking to the run, so I'll take Rice at longer odds than Kelce.
50) Justin Watson OVER 17.5 receiving yards
This time, we have a guest pick from our very own Jovan Alford:
"The former UPenn standout gets overlooked as the Chiefs' offense has Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice at the skill positions. However, Watson has become one of Mahomes' more reliable targets, going over his number in 10/16 regular season games and once in the postseason. If Watson gets at least two targets in the Super Bowl, I think he can hit the OVER."
51) Kyle Juszczyk OVER 3.5 receiving yards
We have two more guest picks before I bring things home for us. This one comes from Brian Giuffra:
"They're not offering Juszczyk receiving yards on DraftKings or FanDuel, so I had to go to BetMGM to find a market here and I love the OVER. Juszczyk had 33 yards receiving against the Lions in the NFC Championship and has eclipsed this number in four of the last five games he's played. He also had 39 yards and a TD when these teams met in the 2019 Super Bowl."
52) Kyle Juszczyk OVER 0.5 receptions (-160)
"The Chiefs have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL so I think the 49ers will try to spread the ball around and make things harder to telegraph. Juszczyk has been held without a catch in only three games he's played this season. In a game where they'll want to be unpredictable, the 49ers will find a way to pass him the ball."
53) Gatorade color poured on winning coach: Blue +460
Okay, it's time to have a little bit of fun. I'm betting on the color of Gatorade being poured on the winning coach to be blue. This is a great bet at +460 odds considering blue was dumped on the winning coach in three of the last Super Bowls. Let's ride with it.
54) Christian McCaffrey to be named Super Bowl MVP (+450)
I'm going to list off my picks to win Super Bowl MVP now with Christian McCaffrey being the first. He is the heart and soul of the 49ers offense and can attack defenses both through the air and on the ground. Considering the Chiefs' weak run defense, CMC is poised for a huge game.
55) Isiah Pacheco to be named Super Bowl MVP (+3500)
Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are the obvious choices for the Chiefs, but Isiah Pacheco may be the one that's best set up for the success. The 49ers give up 4.3 yards per carry and the Chiefs have given Pacheco 20+ carries in two of their three playoff games. It's worth a sprinkle at his current odds.
56) Chris Jones to be named Super Bowl MVP (+14000)
I'm sprinkling on a defensive player for both teams as well. It's not unheard of for defensive players to win the award with two of them being named Super Bowl MVP dating back to 2010. My pick for the Chiefs is Chris Jones, who is the biggest disrupter of offenses the Chiefs' defense has.
57) Fred Warner to be named Super Bowl MVP (+18000)
For all the reasons I've stated above about Fred Warner, he can be the biggest game-changer for the 49ers. If he racks up a ton of tackles like we know he can and makes a couple of key defensive plays including a takeaway or two, he could be named MVP of the Super Bowl. It's worth a sprinkle at 180/1, right?
58) Coin flip result: Heads (+100)
Tails never fails, except for when it does. Give me heads on the coin flip.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!