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Alabama vs. Texas A&M Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 6

Who will gain control of the SEC West on Saturday?

By Reed Wallach

Sep 30, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Max Johnson (14) passes the
Sep 30, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Max Johnson (14) passes the / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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Both Alabama and Texas A&M have won their first two games in SEC play after losing their respective marquee non-conference matchups, in position to contend for an SEC Championship game appearance.

Alabama enters College Station as a road favorite in this one as the team is fresh off a blowout win at Mississippi State, but faces a big step up in class against Texas A&M who hasn't missed a beat with new quarterback Max Johnson taking over for the injured Cooper Weigman.

Who will seize control of the SEC West and get the inside track to the conference title game? Let's dive into the odds.

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Alabama vs. Texas A&M Odds, Spread and Total

Texas A&M vs. Alabama Betting Trends

  • Texas A&M is 4-1 against the spread (ATS)
  • Alabama is 3-2 ATS this season
  • Alabama has gone OVER in three of five games
  • Texas A&M has gone OVER in three of five games

Alabama vs. Texas A&M How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, October 7th
  • Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
  • Venue: Kyle Field
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • Alabama Record: 4-1
  • Texas A&M Record: 4-1

Alabama vs. Texas A&M Key Players to Watch

Alabama

Jalen Milroe: Milroe made it look easy last week against Mississippi State, completing 83% of passes and rushing for two touchdowns. This is still going to be a rush-heavy Alabama offense, but the team will look to take the top off of defenses at the right time. On the year, Milroe has 10 big-time throws against five turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus as he continues to get more comfortable in the pocket.

Texas A&M

Max Johnson: Johnson navigated the Aggies offense to a win against Arkansas in spite of a pick-six, and will need to be careful with the ball against a stout Alabama defense that is top 15 in EPA/Pass, but did struggle against the only passing offense that is above the national average. Can Bobby Petrino put Johnson in a place to succeed?

Alabama vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

As I broke down in my early week betting preview, I'm going to back Texas A&M as a home underdog.

Both teams have bounced back from Week 2 losses, but I believe that there are particular matchup advantages for the Aggies in this one, as noted in my betting preview:

Alabama's offense looked the part against a hapless Mississippi State defense, scoring 40 points on less than 60 plays, but the unit still grades out as an average passing group, 79th in EPA/Play and 82nd in success rate, per gameonpaper.com.

That's the key to beating this Aggies defense, and I'm not sure Jalen Milroe is equipped to take advantage. Milroe started last season in place of Bryce Young in this very matchup, completing 12-of-19 passes for 111 yards with three touchdowns and an interception, a 24-20 home win. Alabama was able to keep the game on the ground and averaged nearly six yards per carry, but that won't work against this healthy and vaunted Aggies front in 2023.

Texas A&M has been stout against the run, enjoying better health and a more locked-in defensive front, ranking 23rd in EPA/Rush, and is tied for the 10th-best success rate in the country against the run. Miami exposed the Aggies secondary en route to 48 points in Week 2, I don't think the Crimson Tide has the offensive firepower to hit that mark.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M's offense is better suited to beat this Alabama defense, ranking fourth in the country in passing grades, per Pro Football Focus. We saw the Longhorns hit enough deep shots to keep the Crimson Tide at bay, and the Aggies have the skill on the outside to spoil the visitors' game plan once again.

Lastly, as noted in my early week preview, the offensive line play for the Crimson Tide can be an issue.

Milroe has started to turn it on after regaining his job as the starting quarterback for the Crimson Tide, but I do question if he is able to connect downfield to expose the weak part of the Aggies' defense. Further, the Alabama offensive line presents serious concerns, bottom 10 in sacks allowed this season. Texas A&M ranks third in sacks this season and can put the Crimson Tide behind the sticks early.

There are plenty of avenues that lead me to the Texas A&M side as a home underdog.

PICK: Texas A&M +3

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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