Alabama vs. UConn Final Score Prediction for NCAA Tournament Final Four
By Reed Wallach
UConn’s quest for college basketball immortality is in its final stages.
The Huskies enter the 2024 NCAA Tournament Final Four as massive favorites to cut down the nets, looking to be the first back-to-back National Champions since 2006 and 2007 Florida. In the team’s way is the potent offense of Alabama, which bolsters all-three-point shots or layups philosophy under head coach Nate Oats.
With the stakes so high, let’s try our hand at a final score prediction. Yes, it’s a long shot, but by keying in on the likely game script we can project how this game goes and maybe nail the outcome of the game from a scoreline perspective.
Here’s all the betting information you need, our preview on the game, and our score prediction.
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Alabama vs. UConn Odds, Spread and Total
Alabama vs. UConn Betting Preview
As noted in our game preview, Alabama's defense is up against it facing UConn's offense.
Alabama’s defense, despite this run to the Final Four, still is outside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency and is incredibly poor in the frontcourt, bottom 100 nationally in causing turnovers, defensive rebounding percentage, and opponent free throw rate allowed.
I don’t believe the Crimson Tide will have an answer for UConn at all. The Huskies' elite motion offense is going to unpack this defense is prone to getting into foul trouble and will be whistled plenty during the array of off-ball screens the Huskies run.
UConn can blow this open if Alabama isn’t on from three, but I believe the Huskies team total over is the path to take in this matchup given the Crimson Tide's quick pace and little recourse to slowing down the Huskies.
Alabama vs. UConn Final Score Prediction
As noted above, I think that UConn can name its number in this one against a lackluster Alabama defense.
Despite shooting below 30% from beyond the arc across the four NCAA Tournament games, UConn has scored 75 or more points in all of them.
With the pace expected to be much faster against Alabama, which is rated as the ninth fastest adjusted tempo team in the country, per KenPom, UConn can crack the 90-point barrier.
However, Alabama is going to get up shots from the perimeter, and with some makeable looks in transition off of any UConn misses, the Crimson Tide is going to get its fair share, even in a losing effort. Alabama has scored 70 or more in every game this season and has scored 89 or more in all but one game this NCAA Tournament run.
UConn’s defense is elite, but I do believe that the tempo can impact the game state. While the Huskies will win this one with relative ease, I expect Alabama to continue getting shots up from deep in hopes of making it competitive, leading to an incredibly high scoring affair.
Final Score Prediction: UConn 96, Alabama 78
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.