Arkansas State vs. Alabama Prediction and Odds for Monday, Dec. 4
By Reed Wallach
Alabama was the No. 1 overall seed last season in the NCAA Tournament, but this team is looking different, and possibly far less dangerous.
The Crimson Tide have failed in two of their early tests this season as the new-look roster under Nate Oats still needs some seasoning. Can the team build some momentum against Arkansas State as massive favorites?
Here's my betting preview for this one as I assess if the Crimson Tide are being underrated in the market now or if the team still can't be trusted after a slow start?
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Arkansas vs. Alabama Odds, Spread and Total
Arkansas State vs. Alabama How to Watch
- Date: Monday, Dec. 4
- Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
- Venue: Coleman Coliseum
- How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
- Arkansas State Record: 2-6
- Alabama Record: 5-2
Arkansas State vs. Alabama Key Players to Watch
Arkansas State
Taryn Todd: After playing sparingly at TCU and New Mexico, Todd has broken out at Arkansas State, averaging 13 points with three rebounds and nearly three assists. While Arkansas State has struggled in the record books, Todd may be a break out candidate come Sun Belt play.
Alabama
Mark Sears: The Ohio transfer is breaking out this season, averaging nearly 21 points per game on 58/51/84 splits with four rebounds and four assists. The lead guard is playing at a high level and should be in line for a big outing yet again against an outmatched opponent.
Arkansas State vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick
"Alabama is a three-point shooting team with 41.9% of its shots coming from three-point range. Now, they play an Arkansas State team that has a strong perimeter defense. Only 16.4% of the points scored against the Red Wolves this season come from three-point land, the second lowest rate in the country. They're also keeping teams to shooting just 32.1% from beyond the arc."
The numbers check out. ShotQuality believes that Alabama is due a 5% drop in three-point percentage this season after a hot shooting start to the season. The Crimson Tide shoot the three a ton, 77th in 3-point rate, but Arkansas State allows the lowest 3-point rate in the country. You read that right. Alabama only wants to shoot at the rim and from beyond the arc, but if the Red Wolves shut off part of that, then the team may keep it tight.
Alabama doesn't force a ton of turnovers, ranking outside the top 200 in generating turnovers, and Arkansas State is a solid 3-point shooting group, 34% from deep (124th in the country). I think there's plenty of ways for the Red Wolves to stay within this big number.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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