Arkansas vs. Gonzaga Updated Prediction and Odds for NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen (Bulldogs Have Key Advantage)

The No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks and the No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs get the Sweet 16 started on Thursday, March 24, at 7:09 p.m. EST.

Neither team has been overly impressive in their first two tournament games, with the Razorbacks narrowly beating Vermont and New Mexico State while Gonzaga pulled away from Georgia State late and overcame a double-digit deficit to defeat Memphis.

Arkansas has failed to cover the spread in three straight contests after a stellar run to close the season while Gonzaga's issues may paint the picture of a larger problem, as they're just 2-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games.

Can the Bulldogs right the ship and finally put together a complete performance or will the Razorbacks play better as an underdog than they have as favorites?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET and statistical profile of each team to find some value in this West Region Sweet 16 matchup:

Arkansas vs. Gonzaga Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Arkansas: +8.5 (-110)
• Gonzaga: -8.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Arkansas: +290
• Gonzaga: -370

Total: 155 (Over -110/Under -110)

Arkansas vs. Gonzaga Analysis

Arkansas

• Overall Record: 25-8
• ATS Record: 20-13
• Over/Under Record: 20-13
• SoS: 34th

• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 111.0
• Defensive Efficiency: 92.0

• eFG%: 49.2%
• FT%: 75.3%
• 3PT%: 30.7%

• Last Year’s Tournament Result: Elite 8
• Odds to win National Championship: +3000

Gonzaga

• Overall Record: 23-2
• ATS Record:13-10-2
• Over/Under Record: 10-15 
• SoS: 14th

• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 122.9
• Defensive Efficiency: 89.4

• eFG%: 59.8%
• FT%: 72%
• 3PT%: 37.5%

• Last Year’s Tournament Result: National Runner-Up
• Odds to win National Championship: +250

Arkansas vs. Gonzaga Prediction and Pick

Arkansas' offense is a significant problem. The Razorbacks are in the 16th percentile in offensive rating over their last five games thanks to a first percentile-ranking in effective field goal percentage. Now they take on one of the best defenses in the country in Gonzaga with Chet Holmgren's "Inspector Gadget" arms manning the middle.

Gonzaga has the best interior defense in the country, meaning the Razorbacks will need to shoot the ball well from deep to have a chance. That, uh, could be a problem. Arkansas ranks 313th nationally on the year in 3-point shooting percentage (30.5%) and the Razorbacks are getting worse, converting just 27.9% of their triples over their last five.

Without J.D. Notae having the game of his life (which is possible), I just don't see how the Razorbacks score enough to keep up. Both teams play at a fast pace and those extra possessions will just exacerbate the talent discrepancy. Arkansas' only chance is to rack up as many fouls as possible so I expect it to be aggressive inside early on, but if Holmgren can avoid early foul trouble then the Bulldogs should roll.

Give me Gonzaga to finally look like the the team its been all season long: the very best in the country.

Pick: Gonzaga -8.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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