Gonzaga Continues Disturbing ATS Betting Trend (Why Bulldogs May Struggle to Cover Again vs. Arkansas in Sweet 16)
By Reed Wallach
No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga did not dominate the competition like many expected in the first weekend of the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
One year removed from a National Championship appearance, Mark Few's Gonzaga Bulldogs were expected to breeze through their competition but struggled well into the second half against No. 16 seed Georgia State and were on the ropes against No. 8 Memphis in the second round on Saturday night.
Well, this goes with the recent trends of the Bulldogs, who have been overvalued in the NCAA Tournament. The team is 2-7 against the spread in their last nine contests, including 0-2 this year.
Gonzaga is favored by 8.5 points at WynnBET Sportsbook against No. 4 seed Arkansas in Thursday night's Sweet 16 matchup with a total of 155.
Can Gonzaga get a cover against Arkansas? Check out our game preview!
What does History Say About No. 1 Seeds on a Similar Path as Gonzaga?
Chris Fallica of ESPN brought up some interesting factoids heading into the Sweet 16 for both Arkansas and Gonzaga.
22 previous No. 1 seeds won its Rd of 32 game by 5 points or fewer. Since 2010 they have struggled in the Sweet 16 as they went 1-4 ATS and the last two - Duke in 2019 and Kansas in 2018 won by 2 and 4. Since 1985, 15 of the 22 wound up winning its Sweet 16 game (10 covered)...
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) March 21, 2022
Ironically, 1990 Arkansas follows the same trend as this one, and was able to dethrone No. 1 UNC that season. Can history repeat itself after a pair of tight wins against Vermont and New Mexico State?
In recent history, No. 1 seeds that struggled to win with margin in the second round have struggled again in the Sweet 16, going just 1-4 ATS and the last two had to win by a razor thin margin. As the talent gaps have tightened in recent history, NCAA Tournament games have been closer by nature, and Gonzaga can be in line for another barnburner on Thursday night against a physical Arkansas team.
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!