Arnold Palmer Invitational Score Predictions (How Will Top Golfers Fare at Bay Hill?)

The PGA Tour is set to head to Bay Hill for the fourth signature event of the 2024 season; the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This event will be a high-stakes warm-up for next week's Players Championship as the Tour continues its Florida swing.

This event will be a high stakes warm up for next week's Players Championship as the Tour continues its Florida swing.

If you want to check out my full betting preview for the event, as well as my three outright bets, be sure to check out my full betting preview here.

In this article, I'm going to attempt to predict the final score for the top 10 golfers on the odds list, as well as the final score for the eventual winner.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational score predictions

Winning score: -10

Bay Hill is one of the most difficult events on the PGA Tour's schedule and if the course gets some bad weather, we could see the winner in the low single digits under par. Scottie Scheffler won this event with a score of -5 in 2022 and Tyrell Hatton won it at -4 in 2020. But, if we don't see any bad weather, we'll see the winner a few strokes lower. Kurt Kitayama won it last year at 9-under par and Bryson DeChambeau won it in 2021 with a score of 11-under par. As of writing this article, we're not expected to much heavy wind this time around so I'll predict the winner to fall right in the middle of the last two editions of this tournament that didn't have tough conditions.

Scottie Scheffler score prediction: -8

Strap in for another classic Scottie Scheffler performance. He'll out ball strike every other golfer in the event but his putter will fail him often enough that he'll end with another top five finish, but will miss out on a win. Until he can prove his putter has improved to a level that will help him win, I'd stay away from betting on him to win. A top 5 or top 10 finish for Scheffler is how you'll want to bet him.

Rory McIlroy score prediction: -7

Rory McIlroy is a less drastic version of Scottie Scheffler. Last week, he led the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green but his putting wasn't good enough to win and he ended up with a T21 finish. No matter how good the likes of Scheffler and McIlroy are striking the ball, you have to hit some putts to win.

Rory's history at Bay hill will prove useful and he'll be in contention on Sunday, but he'll fall just short once again.

Patrick Cantlay score prediction: -5

Patrick Cantlay posted a T4 finish at this event last season, and he's entering this event in great form, posting a T4 finish at The Genesis Invitational. It's worth noting that the golfers will now be putting on Bermuda grass, which is not the type of grass that Cantlay typically excels on. He has also been below average in driving accuracy in five straight starts which could cost him at this course.

Viktor Hovland score prediction: E

Viktor Holand hasn't been in great form by his standards lately which is a big cause of concern for me heading into this week. He hasn't finished better than T19 in his three starts this season and we have yet to see the ball striking clinic that Hovland usually puts on. Until I see him return to that level of form, I'm not going to expect much from him.

Xander Schauffele score prediction: -10

I've been saying that I won't bet on Xander Schauffele any more after the amount of times I've lost money by doing so over the past five years, but I can't look past his numbers heading into this event. He's in great form, fresh off a T4, and his ball striking numbers have been fantastic. He's also third on the Tour in approach proximity from 200+ yards. He's my pick to win this week.

Jordan Spieth score prediction: -2

Jordan Spieth finished T4 at this event last year but he's treated us to a classic "Jordan Spieth experience" this season, posting a T39 sandwiched in between third place and T6 finishes. He was also disqualified after signing an incorrect score card at the Genesis Invitational. I can't trust him this week especially with his driver which gets wayward at times.

Collin Morikawa score prediction: -3

Collin Morikawa has been steady in 2024, posting two-straight top 20 finishes after missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. He has struggled a bit off-the-tee this season which I think is going to keep him from truly contending this week.

Ludvig Aberg score prediction: -6

In theory, Ludvig Aberg's game should fit this course to perfect. He's fantastic off the tee and has great distance with his irons. He also has finished inside the top 20 in three-straight starts but you have to wonder if his lack of experience at Bay Hill could cost him from contending. The young prospect may also be overpriced due to the hype surrounding him, but He will at least be in the conversation on the weekend.

Sam Burns score prediction: -9

I love Sam Burns in this event. He's been gaining strokes in all four areas and has posted three-straight top 10 finished including a T10 at the Genesis Invitational. He leads the tour in bogey avoidance and posted a ninth place finish at this event two years ago. At the end of the day, I give the slight edge to Xander, but I think Burns might be the runner-up this week.

Max Homa score prediction: -1

Max Homa has finished in between 10th and 24th in his four starts at this event and I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar outcome from him this time around. His approach play hasn't been as good as it needs to be which gives me caution with him this week. His short game has been dialed in, but we need to see some solid ball striking improvement before I will pick him to be in contention.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.