Ask the Oddsmakers: How are the Sharps Betting Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin?

Graham Mertz and the Wisconsin Badgers are 6.5-point favorites against the undefeated Notre Dame Fighting Irish this week at Soldier Field in Chicago.
Graham Mertz and the Wisconsin Badgers are 6.5-point favorites against the undefeated Notre Dame Fighting Irish this week at Soldier Field in Chicago. / Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Soldier Field in Chicago sits about an hour and 40 minutes away from South Bend, Indiana, and around two and a half hours away from Madison, WI. In Week 4, the home of the Chicago Bears will be the site for the No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish against the No. 18 Wisconsin Badgers.

Wisconsin is listed as the de facto home team, but seem to be getting the home-field advantage treatment from the oddsmakers. The Badgers are 6.5-point favorites against Notre Dame, with Notre Dame +6.5 juiced up to -115 odds (bet $115 to win $100). Notre Dame is a +190 moneyline pick with Wisconsin coming in at -240. The total currently sits at 45.

This marquee matchup has collected the most interest for Week 4 over at WynnBET Sportsbook, as they have the highest number of tickets and handle on the spread, moneyline and total amongst their entire slate of contests. To learn more insight into how the professionals are betting this game, WynnBET Trader Patrick Wall filled us in on the pertinent details.

How are the Sharps Betting Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin against the spread?

“This game opened at Wisconsin -5, and the pros jumped on this number right away, which pushed it up to -6.5," Wall exclusively told BetSided.

"That number is where most shops sit now, including WynnBET. A couple of shops have made the move back down to 6 so there is some resistance short of 7. A clear sign to me that respected bettors are on both sides of this game. We have yet to take bets to warrant a move back to 6.”

According to Wall, the sharps were ready for that opening line of -5 for Wisconsin, and bet it all the way up a point and a half to -6.5. Wall also indicated that sharp bettors expect the game to be somewhat close, grabbing Notre Dame at either 6.5 points or at some sportsbooks, at 7. By grabbing both teams at two different numbers, professional bettors are looking to "middle" the action by finding advantageous numbers on both sides.

How are the Sharps Betting the Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin total?

“The total for Wisconsin and Notre Dame opened higher than it currently sits at (45, was 47 at the time this was submitted)," said Wall.

"Even with most tickets and handle on the over, this line has ticked down half of a point with juice. This is a clear sign the pros are on the under at 47 (now 45)... I doubt the total goes much lower because it seems the books are writing the action they need at 46.5, but I think it needs to for the pros to find value in betting it.”

While the number has continued to move since Wall answered this question, it's another indication that the initial opening line was likely too high, as the sharps jumped in early to move the line down. Additionally, Wall suggested that public bettors could also be influencing the total movement down due to recency bias from each team's last few games.

Is Notre Dame worth a moneyline bet to pull the upset against Wisconsin?

Some might call Wisconsin beating Notre Dame outright an upset because of their ranking. I disagree," Wall told us.

"I trust the numbers much more than a 3-0 record and higher ranking. It seems the public doesn’t... ‘I get the higher ranked team at +195? Forget the points, give me the money line.’ I hear that line in my head every time it pops up on our tickers. I’ve heard it a lot this week. Go Badgers.”

If Notre Dame pulls off the upset, like our Peter Dewey expects, he'll remain undefeated in his college football straight-up upset picks for the season. Unfortunately for Peter, it looks like he's on the public side of the action this week as they are all over Notre Dame on the moneyline.

Sorry to all of those rooting for the "Jack Coan Revenge Game" narrative!

Who are you picking in Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin on Saturday? Make your pick at WynnBET and don't forget your first bet is risk-free up to $1,000!