AT&T Byron Nelson Odds and Picks (Expect Winner to Come from Top of Odds List)

The AT&T Byron Nelson will be held at TPC Craig Ranch this week.
The AT&T Byron Nelson will be held at TPC Craig Ranch this week. / Matthew Stockman/GettyImages

Anyone who followed my picks in last week's Well Fargo Championship betting preview cashed a nice little 40/1 ticket on Max Homa to win it all.

Let's try to make it two in-a-row as we turn our attention to the AT&T Byron Nelson, which will serve as the warm up for next week's second major tournament of the year, the PGA Championship.

The AT&T Byron Nelson will feature one of the stronger fields we've seen in recent weeks. For the second straight year, it will be hosted at TPC Craig Ranch.

Let's dive into the top 10 odds to win the event, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson

  • Scottie Schefler +1000
  • Justin Thomas +1200
  • Xander Schauffele +2000
  • Dustin Johnson +2000
  • Jordan Spieth +2000
  • Sam Burns +2000
  • Will Zalatoris +2500
  • Hideki Matsuyama +2500
  • Hideki Matsuyama +2800
  • Joaquinn Niemann +3000

How to Handicap TPC Craig Ranch

TPC Craig Ranch measures as a Par 72 at 7,468 yards.

This course is, in one sense, extremely difficult to handicap, and in another sense, very easy to handicap. The reason being is that it's an extremely easy course that doesn't have any defining features.

That means, we just want to look at basic stats like total strokes gained, ball striking, and scoring. The down side of this, is that it's difficult to narrow down the field in order to target who this course fits well. Literally anyone could play well this week, but because it's such an easy and scorable course, I expect the winner to come from a top name.

5 Key Stats for AT&T Byron Nelson

  • Total Strokes Gained
  • Ball Striking
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Birdie or Better Percentage
  • Strokes Gained: Putting

Picks to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson

Justin Thomas +1200

Justin Thomas hasn't won a tournament since the Players Championship in 2021, and as much as I despise saying that someone's "due for a win", but he's due for a win. Thomas ranks first in the field in both total strokes gained and in birdie or better percentage.

Scottie Scheffler is deserving of being the betting favorite this week, but I'm concerned about some level of hangover after his scorching hot start to his year that was capped off with a win at the Masters. I think JT is the much better value pick at 14/1.

Will Zalatoris +2500

Will Zalatoris is first in the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green. His 170th ranked putting costs him when it comes to total strokes gained, but he should feel right at home in this Texas-based event this week. He's still seeking his first Tour win, and an event that will be a shootout that doesn't offer particularly tough greens should set him up for a good chance his maiden victory.

He's coming into the event off of three-straight finishes of sixth or better.

Sam Burns +2000

I apologize for picking all golfers near the top of the odds list, but I think this will be a chalky event. Sam Burns finished in second place last year, and will have the advantage of already competing here once, while most of the top golfers sat out of this event in 2021.

Burns is a birdie machine, ranking second in the field in birdie or better percentage behind only Thomas. He won the Valspar Championship in late march, unfortunately missed the cut at The Masters, but followed it up with a second place finish at the Zurich Classic in his last event.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.