Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs Prediction and Odds: It's Time to Fade Toronto

The Toronto Maple Leafs sported a league-best 12-2 record in the month of November.
The Toronto Maple Leafs sported a league-best 12-2 record in the month of November. / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
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The Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs will clash in what could be a preview of this season's Stanley Cup Final.

No team in the NHL was hotter in the month of November than the Maple Leafs, winning 12 of their 14 games. They now sit atop the Atlantic Division with a total record of 16-6-1. They're also tied with the Panthers and Capitals for most points in the league.

They'll host the Avalanche tonight, who despite being only 11-6-1 on the year, remain +550 favorites to win the Stanley Cup at WynnBET.

Here are the odds for tonight's interconference showdown.

Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs Odds and Total

Moneyline:

  • Avalanche +110
  • Maple Leafs -120

Puck line:

  • Avalanche +1.5 (-220)
  • Maple Leafs -1.5 (+175)

Total:

  • 6 (Over +100/Under -120)

Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs Prediction and Pick

Despite their subpar record, there are plenty of signs that we'll see some positive regression from the Avalanche. They rank sixth in the NHL in even strength CORSI%, just one spot below the Maple Leafs. They've also been playing strong in their own end, ranking sixth in the league in opponent high danger scoring chances.

The Leafs are the same Leafs we've seen since Auston Matthews joined the team. They're electric in their opponents end and at times it feels like they can score at will, but their defensive play leaves a lot to be desired. They rank 26th in opponent high danger scoring chances. Luckily for them, goaltender Jack Campbell has emerged as an early candidate to win the Vezina Trophy.

Anytime the Leafs play a team that can hang with them offensively but are stronger in their own end, I have to fade them.

Pick: Avalanche +110


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