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Best Against the Spread Bets for NFL Divisional Round (Trust CJ Stroud, Texans)

By Reed Wallach

Jan 13, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) in a 2024 AFC wild
Jan 13, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) in a 2024 AFC wild / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
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The betting market is sharpening, but we still have wagers to make as two NFL Divisional Round games go off on Saturday.

The Houston Texans will look to extend its dream season under rookie CJ Stroud on Saturday against the No. 1 seed in the AFC Baltimore Ravens. Are our betting experts backing Stroud as a near-double digit favorite? We got you covered with our best against the spread picks for both games, including the 49ers taking on the Packers.

While we have plenty of postseason betting coverage for you, including Iain MacMillian's Road to 272, keep reading for our ATS picks for each Saturday game in the Divisional Round.

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Best Against the Spread Picks for Saturday, January 20th NFL Divisional Round

  • Texans (+9.5) vs. Ravens
  • Packers vs. 49ers (-10)

Texans vs. Ravens Prediction and Pick

Peter Dewey thinks that this is too many points for the Ravens to lay against an offense this potent. I'll leave it to him from his picks against the spread column:

The Baltimore Ravens are heavily favored against CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans, but it may be too many points. 

Houston has dominated as an underdog this season, going 7-3 against the spread overall and 4-1 as road dog in 2023. 

While Baltimore is 5-3 ATS as a home favorite, asking the team to win this game – against a high-powered offense – by 10 or more is pushing it. 

The Ravens want to win this game with defense (they have the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL), so this may not end up being the blowout oddsmakers are expecting. 

After watching Houston torch a strong Cleveland defense, I think Stroud and company can keep this game close. 

PICK: Texans +9.5

Packers vs. 49ers Prediction and Pick

Iain MacMillian is keeping it simple, trusting the best team in the NFL, the San Francisco 49ers, to take care of business. From his Road to 272:

By the majority of metrics you want to look at, the San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFL. Sure, you could argue that title belongs to the Ravens due to them beating the 49ers late in the season, but the metrics generally rank the 49ers higher.

For example, the enter the playoffs ranking first in Net Yards per Play (+1.6), EPA per play, and Success Rate. Their offense is dynamic and effective and few teams have had an answer for them all season and I don't think the Packers will either.

The Packers offense became a top 10 unit, bordering on top five by the end of the season, but a team that challenges the 49ers has to be a team that can play defense and the Packers absolutely can not do that.

The Packers are 20th in opponent yards per play (5.4), 23rd in opponent EPA per play, and 26th in opponent success rate. The 49ers offense is going to have their way with them.

Green Bay's offense may need to score on every possession in order to keep pace with San Francisco and I just don't see the Packers being able to do that. I'll lay the points with the 49ers.

PICK: 49ers -10

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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