Best Against the Spread Bets for NFL Week 9 (Falcons Will Roll vs. Vikings)
Strap in folks, we have a loaded slate of NFL games to watch and bet on today.
In this article, I'm going to give you the best spread bets to place for Sunday's action. If you don't care about the point spread, and just want to bet on teams to win on the moneyline, you can check out my best moneyline picks for today here.
Before I give you my favorite against the spread bets for today, check out this fantastic offer from Caesars Sportsbook. For a limited time, new users who click the link below to sign up for an account will get their first bet on Caesars, up to $1,000!
NFL Week 9 Spread Bets
- Cardinals +13.5 vs. Browns
- Falcons -3.5 vs. Vikings
- Colts -2 vs. Panthers
Cardinals +13.5 vs. Browns
As good as the Browns' defense has been, their offense isn't nearly good enough for me to lay eight points on them, no matter who they're playing. Now Deshaun Watson has been announced as the start and the line has moved four points five points from +8.5 to +13.5?! What are we doing here?
Deshaun Watson is the 26th-ranked quarterback this season and P.J. Walker is the 36th-ranked quarterback, according to PFF.com, so there's very little difference between the two.
Cleveland ranks 29th in yards per play, gaining just 4.6 yards per snap. Only the Bengals, Panthers, and Giants average fewer yards per play. No offense that bad should be favored by more than a touchdown.
Let's also remember the Cardinals are actully extremely effective at running the football, ranking second in the league in yards per carry averaging 5.1 per rush. They can do enough to keep pace with the Browns. I'll take the points.
Falcons -3.5 vs. Vikings
It's hard to justify a bet on the Vikings. We're talking about an offense on the road without Justin Jefferson or Kirk Cousins. Jaren Hall, the rookie fifth-round pick from BYU, will get the start. Yes, the Falcons were torched by a rookie last week, but we can't put Hall in the same category as Will Levis.
The Falcons may just be better than their record indicates as well. They're 12th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.2, but they need to stop turning the ball over. Their 30th-ranked average turnover margin per game of -0.9 is killing them this season.
I'm going to back the Falcons and hope they can get to the Vikings' rookie quarterback early and often.
Colts -2 vs. Panthers
The Panthers got their first win of the season, but I'm not convinced they can do the same thing against the Colts. They still rank 30th in Net Yards per Play at -1.2 while the Colts are 12th at +0.1.
Look for the Colts' running backs to have a big game this week. The Panthers are 32nd in opponent EPA per rush and 31st in opponent rush success rate. Meanwhile, the Colts average 4.5 yards per rush which ranks sixth in the NFL.
This is a much worse stylistic matchup for the Panthers than last week's game when they faced a Texans team that can't run the football. Now, the take on a Colts team that is just as effective through the air, but also has a solid running game to compliment it.
I'll back the Colts to win and cover the short spread.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!