Auburn and Maryland meet in the Music City Bowl in Saturday bowl action action.
With Taulia Tagovailoa opting out for the Terrapins at quarterback, how will the Maryland offense be impacted and how can we attack the player prop market with the Tigers likely to play from ahead in Nashville, Tennessee? I'm targeting both team's running backs in this matchup as well as Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne.
Best Prop Bets for Auburn vs. Maryland
- Roman Hemby UNDER 56.5 Rushing Yards
- Jarquez Hunter OVER 96.5 Rushing Yards
- Payton Thorne OVER 165.5 Passing Yards
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Roman Hemby UNDER 56.5 Rushing Yards
Hemby has been up and down all season, rushing for over 70 yards in four games, but less than 40 in five other ones.
In losses, Hemby has ran for an average of 33 yards. As the game script gets away from the Terps, the team opts to attack through the air.
While the team won't have Tagovailoa for this one, the team has seen Billy Edwards play before and he is a capable runner. I believe the Auburn defense, which is top 40 in defensive line yards and 52nd in explosive rush rate allowed, will be able to get into the backfield and limit any chunk runs from the Terps.
With that being said, given that Edwards is able to use his legs, that may eat away on Hemby's volume as Maryland looks to scheme up some quarterback designed runs for the backup QB.
There are too many avenues for Hemby to be played out of this game.
Jarquez Hunter OVER 96.5 Rushing Yards
On the other side of the ball, Hunter may be in line for a monster game against a lackluster Maryland defense that is 90th in EPA/Rush on the year. Further, the team checks in 94th in defensive line yards, struggling to get in the backfield all season (93rd in tackles for loss).
Hunter finished the season in strong form, cracking 95 yards in three of his last four games, gashing the likes of Alabama on more than six yards per carry.
Given the team is expected to play from ahead, I'll bank on Hunter to have a big day on the ground.
Payton Thorne OVER 165.5 Passing Yards
Thorne had his fair share of struggles in his first season in SEC play, but will face a familiar foe in Maryland from his time at Michigan State, and I expect him to have a big outing against a Maryland team that could be down as many as four cornerbacks that have played this season.
While Thorne's numbers show that he may struggle to get to this mark, he has cleared this number in three of 12 games, this matchup should set up well for the quarterback.
Auburn doesn't pass often, but when they do, they hit big plays, ranking 50th in explosive pass rate. Head coach Hugh Freeze has been fantastic in bowl games, winning five of six in his career, with unique play calling. I expect him to scheme up some deep passes in this one and take advantage of an inexperienced and undermanned Terps secondary.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!