The LA Bowl pits Mountain West Conference Champion Boise State taking on the local UCLA Bruins from the PAC-12.
There are plenty of opt outs to keep an eye on in this one, but I'm circling the Bruins likely starting quarterback, Ethan Garbers, for two different props in Saturday's primetime bowl game. Meanwhile, Boise State will have the services of star running back Ashton Jeanty, how should we target him in the player prop market given that the Broncos are starting a true freshman in CJ Tiller.
There are a ton of moving parts on Saturday, but I've hammered down three player props for this one, catch them below!
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Best College Football Player Props for Boise State vs. UCLA
- Ethan Garbers UNDER 211.5 Passing Yards
- Ethan Garbers to NOT throw an interception (+108)
- Ashton Jeanty OVER 21.5 Receiving Yards
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Ethan Garbers UNDER 211.5 Passing Yards
Garbers is a limited passer and may actually be a candidate to be pulled early after he suffered an injury in the regular season finale against Cal. Could Chip Kelly, in a glorified exhibition give backup Collin Schlee some more run in this one? It wouldn't surprise me.
Either way, Garbers is the game manger of what was a limited UCLA offense this season. On 164 dropbacks this season, Garbers logged one big time throw, per Pro Football Focus, on about seven yards per pass attempts.
Given that UCLA is going to be able to lean on its defense against a third string quarterback in Tiller, I expect the Bruins look to avoid mistakes and play a clean offensive game.
Garbers cleared this total against only Stanford and Colorado, the two worst defenses in the PAC-12. While this is a Mountain West defense and there is a drop-off, I'm not going to expect this UCLA passing game to catch fire.
PICK: Ethan Garbers UNDER 211.5 Passing Yards
Ethan Garbers to NOT throw an interception
I mentioned above the limited passing ability of Garbers, but he is a smart decision maker who doesn't put the ball in harms way. Garbers logged only three turnover worthy plays this season and tossed three interceptions. The Broncos have 11 interceptions on the year, tied for the 44th most in the nation, slightly above average.
Given the likely game state, and Garbers' limited risky pass portfolio, I believe we are getting the more likely side at a + money payout.
PICK: Ethan Garbers NOT to throw an interception (+108)
Ashton Jeanty OVER 21.5 Receiving Yards
Jeanty made waves in the Boise State football community after announcing his intention to return to the program. One of the most devastating rushers in the country, 1,262 yards on more than six yards per carry and 14 rushing touchdowns, is also a potent pass catcher.
The sophomore running back totaled 39 catches for 552 yards and five touchdowns. Given that the Broncos are going to have Tiller under center, who has next to no experience, I expect him to check the ball down often to Jeanty and have him try to make some plays in space against a UCLA pass rush that was near the top of the nation in pass rush grade.
This number is lowering Jeanty's median outcome because of the quarterback change, but I'd argue his potential output goes up due to this move with a question mark under center.
PICK: Ashton Jeanty OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!