Toledo is a game away from back-to-back MAC Championships, can it get over the hump against the conference's best defense in Miami (Ohio).
While our game preview can be found here, this is going to focus on player props for the MAC title game. Can the explosive Toledo offense find answers against Miami (Ohio)'s stout defense? I'm looking to bet on Rockets' running back Peny Boone in this one, to find out if I'm going over or under his rushing yard total below.
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Best Prop Bets for Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo in MAC Championship
- Peny Boone UNDER 108.5 Rushing Yards
- Aveon Smith UNDER 145.5 Passing Yards
- Rashad Amos OVER 75.5 Rushing Yards
Peny Boone UNDER 108.5 Rushing Yards
Boone has been a monster this season, averaging more than seven yards per carry for 1,359 yards on nearly 200 rushes. However, he was somewhat quiet against Miami (Ohio) in the first meeting between these two teams, rushing for only 73 yards on 17 carries.
The Maryland transfer is lined at over 100 yards due to his big play ability, he has cleared this mark in eight of 12 games this season, but the RedHawks have a loaded defense that shuts down explosive plays, top 30 in explosive play rate, and allowing only 3.59 yards per carry.
This number is based around Boone's season long averages, but not this matchup against Miami's rush D.
Aveon Smith UNDER 145.5 Passing Yards
Smith has stepped in for Brett Gabbert and kept the RedHawks on its winning ways, winning four straight, but it hasn't been due to an explosive passing attack. Smith has passed for 103, 50, 146, and 170 yards in his last four games while not passing the ball more than 24 times.
The Rockets are 11th in EPA/Pass and ninth in passing success rate, so this can be a struggle for the limited passer in Smith. I figure that Miami looks to keep this ball on the ground and attack a Toledo defense that is below the national average in EPA/Rush and that keeps Smith's passing numbers down.
Rashad Amos OVER 75.5 Rushing Yards
As noted above, Toledo's rush defense is far worse than its pass defense, so the RedHawks may look to try and play keep away against the Rockets' offense which is top 10 in EPA/Play this season.
Miami did a good job of limiting Toledo's offense in the first meeting, a 21-19 home loss, holding Toledo to just 318 yards, and I expect the team to try and keep that unit off the field as much as possible. With that being said, I'm expecting a heavy dose of Amos, who rushed for 55 yards on 10 carries in the first meeting.
The Redhawks lead back has cleared this mark in three of his last four games since the Toledo game as he continued to see more and more reps, highlighted by 21 rushes for 163 yards against a stout Ohio defense. Given Toledo's vulnerability in defending the run, I'll take Amos over in a spot where he can outperform expectations.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!