Best College Football Prop Bets for New Mexico State vs. Liberty in Conference USA Championship
By Reed Wallach
Two of the Group of Five's best meet in the Conference USA Championship on Friday night.
Two newcomers to Conference USA have taken the league by storm as Liberty ran through its regular season schedule to an undefeated record while New Mexico State has been the hottest team in the league, including an outright upset of Auburn. With a pair of dynamic quarterbacks in Kaidon Salter of Liberty and Diego Pavia of New Mexico State, should we both two in the prop market to go OVER its passing yard props?
Here are my favorite prop bets for the C-USA title game.
Sign up below for Caesars Sportsbook to get your first bet matched up to $1,000!
Best Prop Bets for New Mexico State vs. Liberty in Conference USA Championship
- Kaidon Salter OVER 180.5 Passing Yards
- Diego Pavia OVER 180.5 Passing Yards
- Jamoni Jones UNDER 26.5 Rushing Yards
Get our picks for every Conference Championship game here!
Kaidon Salter OVER 180.5 Passing Yards
Salter has been the engine behind a top-10 offense, a dual threat that can win in a myriad of different ways. He uses his legs a ton, but I see this matchup featuring plenty of yardage through the air.
I think this number may be deflated a bit behind Salter's 4-for-11 outing last week in a meaningless game against UTEP for 22 yards, but if you go back and look at his prior numbers he should go way over. Salter has passed for 200 or more yards in six of 11 games this season, including 276 against New Mexico State in Week 2.
It's the Conference Championship game, I'll take the quarterback to make plays and fly over this number.
Diego Pavia OVER 180.5 Passing Yards
Similar to Salter, Pavia is very dangerous with his legs, rushing for over 800 yards this season, but he is also throwing the ball very well, clearing this mark in nine of 13 games this season. Yes, he went UNDER this in the loss to Liberty in Week 2, but since then the New Mexico State offense has turned into one of the best G5 offenses in the country.
Liberty's secondary is vulnerable, below the national average in explosive pass defense, and I believe Pavia can hit a few chunk plays in this one.
I'm counting on a solid outing from the NMSU offense, and Pavia should be more than capable of putting together an above-average outing. Liberty's defense has allowed offenses to outperform its season-long success rate in each of the last six games.
Jamoni Jones UNDER 26.5 Rushing Yards
This is a low mark, but I believe Jones doesn't factor into the game plan for a loaded Aggies running back room.
Jones has cleared this mark in two of the last three, but he isn't as much of a pass-catching threat as the likes of Star Thomas, who has been limited a bit in recent weeks. Given that the team is likely to be behind as double-digit underdogs, I believe that Jones is used less and he goes under this total.
The running back has gone over this in only four of 13 games this season.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!