Texas looks to win its first Big 12 Championship since 2009 as massive favorites against Oklahoma State.
The Longhorns offense showcased its ceiling last week, beating Texas Tech 57-7, can it follow it up at AT&T Stadium by disposing of massive underdog Oklahoma State? I'm looking to target Quinn Ewers and Xavier Worthy in the player prop market while discussing Ollie Gordon's matchup against an elite Texas defensive line.
Here's my player prop analysis for the Big 12 Championship Game, for more on this game check out my full betting preview here.
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Best College Football Prop Bets for Oklahoma State vs. Texas in Big 12 Championship
- Quinn Ewers OVER 270.5 Passing Yards
- Ollie Gordon UNDER 97.5 Rushing Yards
- Xavier Worthy OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards
Quinn Ewers OVER 270.5 Passing Yards
Texas is a massive favorite in this one, but I don't expect head coach Steve Sarkisian to go to the backups early in this one as he did against Texas Tech last week in the Longhorns' 57-7 victory.
The team needs style points to impress the College Football Playoff Committee and I'm counting on Texas to take advantage of a poor Oklahoma State secondary that is bottom five in the country in explosive pass rate allowed.
Ewers will be able to chuck the ball all over the field with the best group of pass catchers that the Pokes have seen this season and I expect him to get to 300 yards through the air, easily surpassing this total. Despite battling a shoulder injury at the end of the season, Ewers has cleared this mark in two of three games since returning and six of 10 games overall.
Ollie Gordon UNDER 97.5 Rushing Yards
The Doak Walker Award finalist has been on a tear this season, rushing for more than six yards per carry totaling 1,580 yards and 20 touchdowns on the ground. However, this will be the best defensive line he has seen this season.
Texas is 19th in Pro Football Focus' rush defense grading system and is fourth in the nation in yards per carry allowed (2.94). Given that the Pokes are likely going to be playing catch-up, I believe the team will need to take to the air more and try and hit Texas for explosive passes rather than trying to run on this vaunted defensive line.
For what it's worth, Texas is outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate, so the game script may not call for a heavy dose of Gordon, keeping him under this sky-high total.
Xavier Worthy OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards
If I think Ewers is going to have a big day through the air, that likely means his No. 1 target is going to go off as well.
Worthy has 67 catches on the season for 883 yards, clearing this number in seven of 12 games. Further, in the team's most impactful games, he has shined the brightest, going over 100 yards against TCU and Oklahoma while catching five passes for 75 yards against Alabama.
As mentioned above, Oklahoma State is one of the worst explosive pass defenses in the country and will struggle to slow down the vertical weapons Ewers has to throw to, namely his top target in Worthy.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!