Best Expert College Football Bets for Friday's Conference Championship Games (Trust Oregon in PAC-12 Title Game)

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix throws out a pass as the No. 6 Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans Saturday,
Oregon quarterback Bo Nix throws out a pass as the No. 6 Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans Saturday, / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA

Conference Championship weekend in college football gets started on Friday night with a pair of undefeated teams looking to finish off magical seasons, but two teams on a roll standing in its way.

Washington is a win away from the College Football Playoff and an undefeated season, but are massive underdogs against Oregon. Meanwhile, Liberty tries to run the table in Conference USA but will need to defeat New Mexico State, who has won eight straight games behind a budding offense.

Need help betting on Friday night? You've come to the right place, keep reading to find our best bet for both title games. Also, you can sign up for Caesars Sportsbook using the link below and get your first bet matched up to $1,000!

Best College Football Bets for Conference Championship Friday

  • Oregon Team Total OVER 38.5
  • New Mexico State +11 vs. Liberty

Oregon vs. Washington Prediction and Pick

The mark sentiment has shifted quite a bit since the first meeting, which lined the two teams as near equals. Now, Oregon enters as a massive favorite, well over a touchdown. It's staggering to see the line movement, but it's not all that surprising if you have watched the two teams play since then.

In the six games since, Washington has won each by less than seven points per game while Oregon has won by 26 points per game, all but one by double digits.

The Ducks are an incredibly dynamic offense, capable of running the ball on a suspect Washington defensive line that is bottom five in defensive line yards but has the Heisman Trophy betting favorite who is leading the nation in passing. Oregon is tops in success rate this season, the team is consistently staying on schedule and setting up scoring opportunities. Nobody scores more per drive than the Ducks, averaging more than four points every time the offense touches the ball.

However, the defense has been much improved as well, 12th in yards per play allowed and 27th in sacks on the year. With Washington's passing game starting to slow up as the season has wore on, the running game has emerged. However, star back Dillon Johnson has been battling a foot injury that limited him against Washington State. If Penix Jr. and the Huskies passing game can't find its potency, the team is going to struggle to keep up with the well-oiled oiled machine of Oregon's offense.

I'm not rushing to lay the points on Oregon with the market currently set this way. I'd prefer to look for the Ducks team total over in a game where the offense should have plenty of scoring opportunities against a lackluster Washington defense.

PICK: Oregon Team Total OVER 38.5

New Mexico State vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

New Mexico State has been underrated since a Week 0 loss at home to Umass. Since then, the team has taken off offensively as the running game has emerged around Paiva with the likes of Star Thomas (nearly six yards per carry) flanking him in the backfield.

The Aggies play a bend, don't break style of defense, ranking right around the national average in terms of yards per play allowed, but top 30 in terms of points per drive allowed, letting up less than two points per drive on defense. The unit is top half of the nation in explosive run and pass rate and is top 20 in red zone touchdown percentage.

While not as talented as last year, the unit has done a good job of giving the offense opportunities to take advantage, which it has in Conference USA play.

The offense is 10th in yards per play behind its run game which is fourth in yards per carry. The passing game isn't consistent, but it hunts for big plays, top 20 in explosive pass rate.

Liberty's defense grades out nicely as an above-average unit, but it hasn't faced an offense this dynamic. The team beat New Mexico State by 16 in Week 2, closing as 9.5-point favorites, the only time the Flames have played a top-35 offense in terms of EPA/Play.

However, it's fair to note that while Liberty is still undefeated and hasn't gotten worse, New Mexico State has gotten significantly better. It's worth noting those teams were even on a yards-per-play basis and NMSU lost the turnover margin by two.

I'm not saying Liberty is overrated, the team has had a special season, but New Mexico State is simply far better than they were earlier this season. The team is off of beating Auburn as a three-touchdown underdog and a bowl-eligible Jacksonville State team as a home dog. The market can't catch up to the Aggies, I'm happy to grab double digits with the dog in a title game.

PICK: New Mexico State +11

Find our picks against the spread for EVERY Conference Championship game here!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!