Best Expert Picks for College Football Week 11 (How to bet Alabama vs. Kentucky and More!)
By Reed Wallach
We have plenty of marquee matchups in Week 11 that will help determine the rest of the season, including some College Football Playoff fallout.
Alabama has played its way back into the CFP discussion with a win over LSU last week at home, how will that translate in a road game with an early kickoff against Kentucky? We'll dish our favorite bet for that SEC showdown as well as another massive conference matchup between Tennessee and Missouri in our weekly expert best bets column.
After that, we'll cap off a monster matchup between Washington and Utah as the Huskies are still in control of both the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy discussion, but can the Utes make things difficult for the Huskies?
Here's our best bets for Week 11!
Best Bets for College Football Week 11
- Alabama vs. Kentucky UNDER 47
- Missouri ML vs. Tennessee
- Utah +8.5 vs. Washington
Alabama vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick
Leary is a full-go for Saturday, but given his struggles already this season, it may be a trying effort for the UK offense, especially if he's having lingering effects in his shoulder.
I believe we can expect the Wildcats to try and establish the run with 900-yard rusher Ray Davis, but that will go right into the strength of Alabama's defense, which is 30th in yards per carry allowed on the year and top 20 in success rate allowed.
Kentucky has been prone to dry spells on offense all season, the team has scored more than 24 points just once in its last four games and I expect Alabama will put together another comprehensive effort on defense.
Meanwhile, Kentucky's defense should do a good job of limiting what's been the most dangerous part of the Crimson Tide offense, the deep passes. Milroe is completing north of 60% of his deep passes this season (passes that travel more than 20 yards), but the Wildcats are top 10 in explosive pass defense and 40th in yards per play allowed.
Alabama is still not on track from a down-to-down perspective, 66th in success rate, right along the national average, but Milroe's ability to create explosive plays has raised the offensive ceiling. However, that's where UK's defense thrives and I believe we see a lower-scoring affair as Bama struggles to find long-sustaining drives.
PICK: UNDER 47
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Missouri vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick
The Tigers are coming off a tough loss to Georgia last week, but they cannot hang their heads because the Volunteers are on their way. Missouri has had a great season up to this point and played well at home (4-1). Their only loss was against LSU on Oct. 7. Meanwhile, Tennessee is 1-2 on the road as they lost to Florida and Alabama by double-digits.
In both losses, the Volunteers got carved up on the ground, and now they have to face Cody Schrader, who’s been excellent for Missouri. Saturday’s game will likely come down to the wire, with the Tigers getting the job done at home.
PICK: Missouri ML
Utah vs. Washington Prediction and Pick
The key in this game will be if Utah can keep Washington's offense off the field. While the Utes went toe-to-toe with USC in a high-scoring game, I do hold the Huskies' defense in a slightly higher regard.
With that being said, this is still a poor defense.
The Huskies are 112th in defensive success rate and particularly bad at stopping the run, 117th in EPA/Rush and 124th in rushing success rate allowed. If the Utes can stay ahead of schedule with Barnes under center and a hopefully healthy Ja'Quinden Jackson, who is fresh off an 111-yard performance despite leaving the game early, the team may be able to limit Washington's possessions.
Utah's secondary grades out as a top-10 defense in terms of EPA/Play, but this is arguably the best passing offense in the country, so it's going to be difficult to expect a lockdown effort. With that being said, the Utes do as good of a job as any team in the PAC-12 at getting to the passer, ranking 12th in total sacks and the best third-down defense in the country (25%).
The Utes can stay competitive on the margins with its ability to generate pressure, get off the field on third down and lock down in the red zone (57%). While I won't call for the outright upset, I believe the team is going to be able to keep up by playing the game on its terms and limiting Washington's offense from seeing the field too often.
PICK: Utah +8.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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