Daily Dinger: Best Home Run Picks Today (Fightin' Phillies' Bats to Stay Hot in Atlanta)
Tuesday's four-game slate was unfortunately the golden sombrero for the BetSided team in our "Daily Dinger" anytime home run picks; going 0-4 on the slate despite a few near hits.
Today, we've got the full crew back to find the best possible options on the board for both NLDS games on Wednesday, starting with the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves in the mid-afternoon, followed by the San Diego Padres and L.A. Dodgers in the nightcap.
Don't forget to follow along in our team standings all postseason long HERE!
Best Home Run Picks Today
Matt Olson - Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Atlanta Braves need to pick up a win in Game 2 against the Philadelphia Phillies, and I like their star first baseman Matt Olson to go deep in this matchup.
It’s not going to be easy against Zack Wheeler, the Phillies’ starter in Game 2, but Olson is 2-for-9 with a homer against him in his career. Also, the Phillies bullpen is one of the worst in MLB, nearly blowing a 7-3 lead in Game 1.
Olson could benefit from facing them, and with several solid pitchers on the mound across the slate, Philadelphia’s bullpen is the staff I’m most confident will give up a homer. – Peter Dewey
J.T. Realmuto - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Realmuto has two hits in nine at bats against Braves Game 2 starter Kyle Wright and those two hits have left the park. The Phillies catcher has been awesome at SunTrust Park over his time in the NL East during his career, he’s hit the third most home runs at a ballpark outside of Citizens Bank Park and Marlins Park with seven.
Granted he’s played plenty of times in Atlanta, but it’s a hitter friendly park and he has success against Wright. Give me Realmuto to keep the Phillies offense rolling in Game 2. – Reed Wallach
Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!
Rhys Hoskins – Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
This is Hoskins first postseason in his career, so it’s about time he makes his mark on the series.
Kyle Wright has given up three home runs in his last five starts, and even though he pitches well at home, he’s given up nine homers on his mound. Hoskins has hit four homers in the last 28 days and one in the last week.
His bat is warm enough to go deep today.
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.
Freddie Freeman - San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Freddie Freeman didn’t come through for me yesterday, but I’m going to stick with him and bet on him to hit a dinger again today, when he and the Dodgers take on Yu Darvish and the Padres.
Darvish has had four starts against the Dodgers this season, and he has given up four combined home runs in those games. That, combined with the fact the Freeman has hit four home runs against this team this season, gives me faith to stick with him as today’s Daily Dinger pick. – Iain MacMillan
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.
Brandon Drury - San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Terrific splits, plus a great number on the board make Drury a clear play for me on Wednesday's doubleheader of playoff games.
12 of his 28 home runs have come vs. left-handed pitching despite only 28.3% of his at-bats this season coming against left-handers. He also sports a .327 isolated power, or ISO vs. lefties compared to a .191 ISO vs. right-handers. For reference, league average is around .140, so Drury's numbers come in around 2.5x better than the replacement level hitter.
Kershaw's been terrific this season in avoiding the home run ball with his lowest HR/9 since 2016. However, come playoff time, his all-time HR/9 goes from 0.72 in the regular season to 1.33 in the postseason.
At around 6/1 odds, I think Drury's price tag, along with his overall numbers vs. left-handers offer excellent value this Wednesday. -Ben Heisler
Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.