Daily Dinger: Best Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Field of Dreams? More Like Field of Dingers!)
By Ben Heisler
Make it two straight victories in the BetSided Daily Dinger contest as Donnavan Smoot’s play of St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado took one out against his former team at Coors Field Wednesday evening.
For Thursday’s short slate, we’ve got a play out in Houston in a Texas-sized matchup between the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros, another opportunity at red-hot Coors Field between the Cardinals and Rockies, and two more plays in the Field of Dreams Game between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds in Dyersville, Iowa.
Can we make it three straight mid-week dingers and stay hot? Here are our favorite bets on the board to leave the yard, with the most favorable odds listed from their respective sportsbooks below.
You can follow along in our team standings all season long HERE!
Best Home Run Picks Today
- Yordan Alvarez (+350) – PointsBet Sportsbook
- Paul Goldschmidt (+295) - Caesars Sportsbook
- Joey Votto (+390) - Caesars Sportsbook
- Ian Happ (+600) - Caesars Sportsbook / PointsBet Sportsbook
Yordan Alvarez (+350) – Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
It’s been 10 days since Alvarez has gone deep, but today’s a perfect day to break the slump.
He’s at home – where he’s hit 14 home runs and the game is during the day – which he’s hit 11 home runs in. Alvarez is facing Cole Ragans in his second start. Ragans had a great debut, but is now going against a powerful lineup.
Alvarez will be able to properly introduce Ragans to the big leagues. – Donnavan Smoot
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.
Paul Goldschmidt (+295) - St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies
It’s another scorcher at Coors Field this afternoon with temperatures in the low 90’s and the wind blowing out to left field. Sounds like a perfect opportunity to get on board with Paul Goldschmidt after he missed out in a great matchup Wednesday night.
Goldy has four career home runs against Rockies starter Germán Márquez and has 40 plate appearances against him; many of which came during his time in Arizona with the Diamondbacks. He’s hitting .382 against him with a slugging percentage of .794.
The 34-year old first baseman ranks in the 90th-plus percentile this season in expected weighted-on-base average (xwOBA), and expected slugging (xSLG), and the bulk of his 26 home runs this season have gone out to left field in the direction the wind is blowing.
With a total of 12 at WynnBET and climbing, the setup is too good not to take a player from this matchup. Goldschmidt will be chalky, but sometimes the numbers speak for themselves.
Follow all of Ben’s betting plays in real-time HERE!
Joey Votto (+340) – Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs take on the Cincinnati Reds and slugger Joey Votto in the Field of Dreams Game on Thursday night, and I’m expecting plenty of long balls in this matchup.
Last year’s Field of Dreams Game between the New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox saw eight home runs, and the ball appeared to fly at that ballpark. I expect a similar result tonight in a primetime game.
Votto has 11 homers this season, and he actually has better splits against lefties this season than righties. I’ll take a shot on him to send one into the cornfield. – Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Ian Happ (+500) - Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Listen, if we’re going to bet on a home run tonight, we might as well do it for the Field of Dreams game. Watching the ball fly into a field of corn will only make cashing this bet even better.
The Cubs face-off against Reds starter, Nick Lodolo, who is a lefty. That makes Ian Happ a good bet to go yard tonight, as his slugging percentage increases from .419 vs. righties, to .477 vs. lefties.
Also, if Lodolo survives his start, Cincinnati will have to turn to its bullpen, which ranks dead last in the Majors in home runs given up per nine innings at 1.3.
I’ll gladly back Happ to go yard at 5/1 tonight. - Iain MacMillan
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.