Daily Dinger: Best Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Marcus Semien is Due to Go Yard in Texas)

Texas Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien (2) is still waiting his first home run of the season after blasting 45 in Toronto in 2021.
Texas Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien (2) is still waiting his first home run of the season after blasting 45 in Toronto in 2021. / Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

After a monster week, the BetSided crew swung and missed on "Daily Dinger" home run props the last two days.

With the full team on the schedule today, we've got five individual bets at substantial plus-odds for five different players to crank one out of the ballpark.

Can Aaron Judge and the Yankees keep smoking baseballs in Baltimore? Will Marcus Semien finally get on the board in mid-May for his first home run of the year after 45 in 2021?

Here are our top home run prop bet picks for Tuesday, May 17, 2022.

Throughout the 2022 MLB season, the BetSided team of editors shares our top home run prop bet picks each day in our "Daily Dinger" feature.

WynnBET Sportsbook offers home run prop bet odds for several players across every game, but not every batter listed in the article is always available. Bettors can still wager on these matchups, as well as bet on multiple unique prop bets offered for each game. For the most up-to-date odds, visit WynnBET Sportsbook here.

Odds shown are consensus if they are not made available at WynnBET. If listed as TBD, it means odds have not been offered as of this writing.

Best Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, May 17

  • Nelson Cruz (+390)
  • Aaron Judge (+360) - available at WynnBET
  • Rafael Devers (+340) - available at WynnBET
  • Brandon Nimmo (+650)
  • Marcus Semien (+385) - available at WynnBET

Nelson Cruz (+390) - Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins

Cruz, even at 41-years old, is still a threat every night to go yard. He’s hit two homers in the last eight games and has a favorable matchup tonight.

The Marlins allow one home run per game, which is 18th in the Majors. Even though the Marlins are starting Cody Poteet, Cruz will likely face the bullpen since Poteet rarely goes over three innings.

Cruz has flexed his power in the last week and he has a chance to do it again today against a weak pitching staff. -- Donnavan Smoot

Aaron Judge (+360) - New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles

Well, I had Aaron Judge in Daily Dinger yesterday, and the New York Yankees decided to give him the day off. Real nice.

I was right, however, that the Yankees would hit plenty of home runs, they finished with three in a 6-2 win. So, why not give Judge a chance to get in on the party tonight?

Judge already has 12 bombs this season, and he’s been dominant against the Orioles in his career, hitting 28 homers in 75 career games. Yeah, that’s insane.

Tonight, Judge faces Spenser Watkins, who has already allowed four homers in six starts this season and sports a 5.19 ERA.

The Yankees and Judge are on fire right now, so I’m going to keep backing them to leave the yard until their bats slow down. -- Peter Dewey

Rafael Devers (+340) - Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros

Devers has six home runs this season, and they all have one thing in common. Every single one came against righties.

Lucky for him he is facing Jose Urquidy, who has taken a step back this season with an ERA north of 4.00 and is allowing fly ball contact on more than 70% of balls put in play.

The wind should be blowing out north of 14 MPH to right field, meaning that the lefty Devers can get a hold of one and send it out of Fenway Park. -- Reed Wallach

Brandon Nimmo (+650) - New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Game 2)

Nimmo and the Mets take on one-time almost Met Steven Matz in Game 2 of their doubleheader from Citi Field.

The 29-year old outfielder only has three home runs on the season, but has very impressive reverse splits against left-handed pitching. In 40 plate appearances, he has an average of .323, a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .436, and an isolated power (ISO) of .226.

Nimmo's also been locked in over the last week with an OPS (on base percentage + slugging percentage) of 1.152.

Oh, and did I mention the wind is blowing out to right field at 13-16 mph tonight?

This sets up supremely well for Nimmo to provide some lefty-on-lefty crime in the dinger department of justice. -- Ben Heisler

Marcus Semien - Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels

Marcus Semien is off to a horrible start to his 2022 campaign.

After hitting 45 home runs and finishing third in AL MVP voting last year, he's batting just .162 and has yet to hit a dinger this season. That changes tonight.

He and the Rangers will face-off against Reid Detmers, whose 4.07 FIP is worse than his 3.77 ERA, so he might be due for some regression. His numbers are largely inflated due to the (admittedly impressive) no-hitter, but I think the Rangers can get to him tonight.

Semien has to hit a home run at some point, why not tonight? -- Iain MacMillan