Our Daily Dinger home run prop picks stayed hot again on Monday night, as Ben Heisler's selection of Pirates slugger Rodolfo Castro paid off against left-hander Mike Minor in Cincinnati.
With the full team back in action, we've got two plays on one red-hot hitter on the road in Detroit, a bet on the best home run hitter in the game to deliver in a rivalry matchup, a South Side slugger vs. a struggling team, and a new hot-shot prospect that's locked in at the dish in his first week of action.
Best Home Run Picks Today
Kyle Tucker (+400) - Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers
Tucker continues to rake for the AL-best Astros, posting a .511 slugging percentage over his lat 23 games, going deep four times. Now he gets to face right hander Drew Hutchinson, who is allowing more than nine hits per nine innings and his numbers are somewhat lucky. He has a 4.08 ERA that is supported by a 5.25 xERA and I think Tucker can take advantage, who destroys righties.
The left hander is hitting .278 against lefties with 16 of his 25 home runs coming from that side, in a lopsided matchup against the Tigers, give me him to make it 17. - Reed Wallach
Tucker has hit three home runs in his last eight games, making him the perfect candidate for the Daily Dinger.
Hutchison has given up four home runs over his last three starts, and Tucker has hit 15 of his 25 home runs on the road.
We can get a little more value on Tucker than Yordan Alvarez – the Astros’ leader in homers – so we’ll go with him and his in-rhythm bat. – Donnavan Smoot
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.
Aaron Judge (+215) - New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
There’s only one way to get back in the race in our Daily Dinger standings, and that’s by backing the best player in baseball once again on Tuesday.
Aaron Judge leads MLB in home runs, and he’s been great against Boston Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta in his career, slashing .375/.583/.750 with one homer in just eight at-bats.
Pivetta has given up 20 home runs in 28 starts this season, and even if he escapes without allowing a homer to Judge, Boston’s bullpen (25th in ERA) is far from a lock to hold down the Yankees slugger. – Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Eloy Jiménez (+330) - Chicago White Sox vs. Colorado Rockies
Chad Kuhl gets the start for the Colorado Rockies today, and he might be one of the only pitchers in recent history for the Rockies who has a significantly worse ERA on the road, than he does at home at Coors Field.
He has a 6.00 ERA on the road this season, while giving up 13 home runs in 13 starts away from home. Tonight, he and the Rockies will face the Chicago White Sox, and I’ll back their most powerful bat recently, Eloy Jiménez, to hit a dinger.
He has hit three home runs in his last five games, and I’ll support him to hit another one tonight. – Iain MacMillan
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.
Josh Jung (+375) - Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics
If you're looking for an optimal way to start your Big League career, ask Josh Jung to share his secret sauce.
After just five games, he's already in the record books in Arlington!
Tonight, the slugging right-hander gets A's lefty Ken Waldichuk, who despite his ERA of 3.60 is about to see some serious regression. His Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP is two full runs higher at 5.62, and comes off a two home run game at home vs. the Atlanta Braves; lasting just 5.1 innings.
Meanwhile, in a limited sample, Jung owns an absurd 1.143 OPS vs. left-handers, and a .571 isolated power (ISO). League average for ISO is around .140, so we're talking almost 4x more than a replacement level player.
When hot bat meets struggling pitcher, the results tend to be terrific.
Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!