Best MLB Parlay Picks Today (Braves, Guardians Headline Four Games with Value)

The Braves are 10-1 in Max Fried's last 11 starts
The Braves are 10-1 in Max Fried's last 11 starts / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

I've grown sick and tired of not cashing a huge odds parlay. Not that these are easy or anything, hence the huge odds, but at some point the betting gods need to smile down on us.

It's raining a ton where I'm at, so perhaps that's foreshadowing all of the dollars that'll rain down on me after today's parlay. I've poured (Get it? Poured...because it's raining) over the data on today's 12-game slate and think we'll be smiling when tonight rolls around.

Don't forget to check out the BetSided previews for each matchup, but in the meantime, here are my favorite MLB parlay picks of the day with odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Best MLB Parlay Picks Today

Marlins vs Reds Under 9.0 (-115)

Both Trevor Rogers and Nick Lodolo are due for positive regression and both lineups are hitting left-handed pitching terribly, with the Marlins ranking 29th in OPS against southpaws this month and the Reds sitting at 25th.

Thus, I'm backing the under with confidence. Rogers has a 3.95 ERA on the road and his 4.54 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is nearly a full run lower than his season-long ERA of 5.46. He's been better of late and I think his progress continues.

Lodolo should also expect improvement, with a 5.81 actual ERA but just a 4.39 expected ERA. He got smacked around by the Cardinals in his last start, though prior to that held each of his last four opponents to three runs or fewer.

The under is 6-2 in the Reds' last eight as a home favorite and 3-1-2 in Rogers' last six starts. Trust in both trends thanks to these middling lineups.

Guardians (-104) vs Red Sox

In case you haven't heard, the Red Sox are cursed. They've lost nine of 10, including five in a row by a combined score of 57-13. No, that's not a typo.

Their misery should continue with Nick Pivetta on the mound today. He's come crashing back to Earth in a huge way, amassing a horrific 13.50 ERA in three July starts, allowing at least six runs in each outing. Cleveland ranks sixth in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks, so they should have no problem getting to Pivetta.

On the other end, Zach Plesac allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last six starts. He's shown massive improvement throughout the season, and Boston's struggling lineup shouldn't scare him. The Guardians are 7-4 in their last 11 as road underdogs and I expect another win so long as the Sydney Sweeney curse lives.

Braves (-175) vs Phillies

Max Fried is as dominant a starter as they come, posting a perfect 5-0 record and 2.51 ERA on the road. The Braves have won 10 of his last 11 outings and he's thrown a quality start in 10 of his last 12.

He'd be getting Cy Young buzz if Sandy Alcantara weren't so effective, but he's still one of the very best pitchers in the sport. Fried is certainly a step up from Ranger Suarez, who ranks in the 31st percentile in expected batting average and has a 5.15 ERA at home.

The Phillies have lost each of Suarez's last five home starts, while Atlanta is 15-4 in its last 19 as a road favorite. Back the Braves to rebound from yesterday's loss with a commanding win.

Dodgers (-290) vs Nationals

The Dodgers have won 11 consecutive games as home favorites and nine consecutive starts by Tony Gonsolin. I don't see either streak stopping tonight. Gonsolin has a ridiculous 1.13 ERA at home and takes on a Nationals' lineup that ranks 28th in OPS against right-handed pitchers this month. He's been spectacular, and gives Los Angeles a massive advantage over Paolo Espino.

Espino has a 6.23 ERA in three July starts and Washington is 1-6 in his outings on the season. Check out his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile and tell me the Nationals even have a prayer today:

Yeesh. The Dodgers are going to smack the ever-loving daylights out of the baseball and keep Gonsolin undefeated.

MLB Parlay for July 25, 2022

The "Rain Down on Me" Parlay (+675)

  • Marlins vs Reds Under 9.0 (-115)
  • Guardians (-104) vs Red Sox
  • Braves (-175) vs Phillies
  • Dodgers (-290) vs Nationals

This is the one. I can feel it in my bones, though my doctor says I may be developing arthritis. Which is unfortunate, given I'm only 27.

In any case, I love the value we've got on these four games. A $25 bet nets you $168.74, which will feel like a lovely downpour of rain to start the week.

Best of luck as always - let's get after it!

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.