After another narrow parlay loss on yesterday's slate, I'm reminded of Jerry West. The Lakers legend lost in the NBA Finals eight times, but his one championship ensured he'd forever be basketball immortality.
I'm still seeking my first big parlay cash, though I'm not so optimistic that BetSided will change their logo to my silhouette like the NBA did with West. Fingers crossed, though.
We've got 12 games on tap for today's MLB slate and in-between my practice silhouette photo shoots, I've thoroughly analyzed the data and crunched the numbers. I'm pleased to report there's a litany of matchups with value just begging to be part of the next great parlay.
Without further ado, here are today's best MLB parlay picks. As always, odds are courtesy of our friends at WynnBET Sportsbook:
Best MLB Parlay Picks Today
Cubs First Five Innings (-130) vs Reds
The Cubs finally broke through for a home victory against Arizona yesterday and I like their chances to carry that momentum into today's matchup with Vladimir Gutierrez and the Reds. Gutierrez has been a disaster. Over his last three starts he has an 11.77 ERA and has surrendered at least four runs in each outing. He's in the fifth percentile in walk rate and Chicago's patient lineup should take advantage.
Chicago has won five of seven on the road and have Drew Smyly on the mound, who ranks in the 96th percentile in hard hit percentage and carries a 2.66 road ERA into today's game.
I'm a bit worried about the Cubs bullpen after a highly competitive series with Arizona, so I'll stick to the first five innings to maximize the discrepancy between Gutierrez and Smyly.
Dodgers -1.5 (-140) vs Nationals
These odds have risen since I wrote up the Dodgers in my preview this morning, but that only bolsters my confidence in the pick. Tyler Anderson has been, for the most part, excellent this season. Other than a hiccup against the Phillies, he has a 2.30 ERA in seven outings and ranks in the 94th percentile in hard hit percentage.
Nationals' starter Joan Adon is in the sixth percentile in expected ERA and walks a ton of batters. The Dodgers have the second-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers this month and lead MLB in walks per game. They should roll in Trea Turner's first game back in Washington.
Phillies (-132) vs Braves
I'm stunned Zack Wheeler isn't a bigger favorite against Tucker Davidson. Wheeler has held his opponent scoreless in three of his last four starts and dominated the Braves last year.
The Phillies have the third-highest OPS against left-handed pitchers this season and Davidson amassed a 4.44 ERA in five AAA starts. If you can't slow down minor leaguers, you won't slow down Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and the rest of the potent Phillies group.
Cardinals (-115) vs Blue Jays
The pitching profile for Jose Berrios from Baseball Savant is, um, not pretty:
He allowed 11 earned runs in his last two road starts and now faces a Cardinals team that has the third-highest OPS at home this month.
The Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last six as a road underdog and things won't get easier against Miles Mikolas today. Mikolas has yet to allow more than two runs in a single start and sports a sparkling 1.68 ERA. He has a quality start in four of his last five outings (missing the fifth by just a single out) and should notch another against a Toronto lineup that has the third-worst OPS against right-handed pitchers in May.
The "Start My Silhouette" Parlay
- Cubs First Five Innings (-130) vs Reds
- Dodgers -1.5 (-140) vs Nationals
- Phillies (-132) vs Braves
- Cardinals (-115) vs Blue Jays