Fridays are for the 'dogs.
The head honcho sent out a message this morning asking our Slack channel if we liked any underdogs on the slate. As it turns out, I like quite a few.
We've got value dripping all over today's 14-game MLB slate and I can't wait to get into the matchups.
Using odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, here are my favorite MLB parlay picks of the day:
Guardians (+145) vs Blue Jays
They've won six straight behind Cal Quantrill, who just threw six shutout innings against the Astros. The Toronto Blue Jays, meanwhile, are 1-4 in their last five and rank 20th in OPS at home since the All-Star break.
Cleveland has the 11th-best OPS on the road in that same time frame and should find success against Jose Berrios, who remains a pitcher we should fade at every opportunity.
Berrios' 5.50 expected ERA is easily the worst among all qualified starters. He's given up at least one home run in nine of his last 10 outings, while his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile is an absolute disaster:
The Guardians are 11-5 in their last 16 as road underdogs. Look for that hot streak to continue as Berrios struggles and Quantrill remains steady.
Orioles (+134) vs Rays
In the Baltimore Orioles' last 13 games as road underdogs, they've covered the run line 12 times. They've won four of five behind Austin Voth, who has a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) below 3.12 in six consecutive road appearances.
Baltimore relishes facing Corey Kluber too, who allowed eight runs in 11 innings over his last two starts against the Orioles. He had an expected FIP above 5.30 in both of those games. Chris Flexen has the worst expected FIP of all qualified pitchers at 5.11, so Kluber really struggles against these O's.
On the other end, Voth allowed just one run in eight innings against the Rays so far this season. The run line is the safer play, but I think Baltimore gets the outright upset.
Cardinals -1.5 (+127) vs Brewers
I absolutely love the St. Louis Cardinals today, as Milwaukee Brewers' starter Eric Lauer is due for a terrible performance.
Laurer has an expected FIP above 4.96 in each of his last four starts, walking three batters in every game. He already gave up five runs to St. Louis in a June loss, and he's been much worse on the road than at home.
Paul Goldschmidt is on fire and the Cardinals handily lead MLB in OPS against left-handed pitchers since the All-Star break. Milwaukee ranks 24th in that stretch, and Jordan Montgomery looked fantastic in his debut with St. Louis last week.
Trust the Cardinals to win their eighth straight as a home favorite and increase their lead in the NL Central.
MLB Parlay for August 12, 2022
The "Fridays are for the 'Dogs" Parlay (+1201)
- Guardians (+145) vs Blue Jays
- Orioles (+134) vs Rays
- Cardinals -1.5 (+127) vs Brewers
Bang, bang! A three-team parlay with odds of +1201? Sign me up!
Those odds pay out $300.34 on a $25 bet, and I think we've got a smashing chance at bringing home some cash today. With a pitching advantage in each game, I'm thrilled to get the party started.
Best of luck - let's get after it!
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.